587 lines
23 KiB
HTML
587 lines
23 KiB
HTML
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<body>
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<div id="tsparticles"></div>
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<div class="container mx-auto px-4 py-8 max-w-6xl">
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<!-- 标题区域 -->
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<div class="text-center mb-12">
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<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-5xl font-bold mb-4 gradient-text">上海算力概念分析报告</h1>
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<p class="text-lg text-slate-400 max-w-3xl mx-auto">从政策规划到订单兑现，上海算力产业进入基本面主升浪</p>
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</div>
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<!-- 时间轴 -->
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<div class="card rounded-xl p-6 mb-8">
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<h2 class="section-title">发展时间轴</h2>
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<div class="mt-6">
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<div class="font-medium text-blue-400">2023-04-19</div>
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<div class="mt-1">上海发布《推进算力资源统一调度指导意见》，提出"2023 年底可调度 1000 PFLOPS（FP16），2025 年全市数据中心算力 <span class="highlight">≥18,000 PFLOPS（FP32）</span>"。</div>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<div class="font-medium text-blue-400">2023-06</div>
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<div class="mt-1">云赛智联松江二期 3,000 机柜获能耗指标；同年 10 月上海数据集团成立（注册资本 <span class="highlight">60 亿元</span>）。</div>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<div class="font-medium text-blue-400">2024-03</div>
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<div class="mt-1">上海印发《算力浦江行动方案（2024-2025）》，明确 <span class="highlight">2025 年智算规模 >30 EFLOPS</span>，国产化率 <span class="highlight">≥50%</span>。</div>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<div class="font-medium text-blue-400">2024-12-24</div>
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<div class="mt-1">上海发布《医学 AI 工作方案》，提出"依托公共算力平台，促进多方算力互联互通"。</div>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<div class="font-medium text-blue-400">2025-05-21</div>
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<div class="mt-1"><span class="highlight">中国算力平台（上海）暨上海算力交易平台正式启动</span>，实现"五个一"目标（一本账、一站式、一张网、一盘棋、一榜单）。</div>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<div class="font-medium text-blue-400">2025-07-28</div>
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<div class="mt-1">上海宣布发放 <span class="highlight">6 亿元算力券</span>，对租用智算资源给予 <span class="highlight">最高 100% 租金补贴</span>。</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 核心观点摘要 -->
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<div class="card rounded-xl p-6 mb-8">
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<h2 class="section-title">核心观点摘要</h2>
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<div class="mt-4 text-lg leading-relaxed">
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<p class="mb-4">上海算力已从"政策规划"进入"订单兑现"阶段：政府主导的算力调度平台、算力券补贴与国资 IDC 形成闭环，<span class="highlight">2025 年 30 EFLOPS 目标对应约 26 万张 A100 等效卡需求</span>，本地国资龙头将率先受益。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 核心逻辑与市场认知分析 -->
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6 mb-8">
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<div class="card rounded-xl p-6">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-4 text-blue-400">核心驱动力</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-3">
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<div class="flex-shrink-0 h-5 w-5 text-blue-400 mt-0.5">1</div>
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<div class="ml-3">
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<span class="font-medium">政策闭环</span>：上海把算力当"新基建水电"，通过"算力券+统筹调度"降低中小企业使用门槛，形成需求放大器。
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</div>
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</li>
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<div class="flex-shrink-0 h-5 w-5 text-blue-400 mt-0.5">2</div>
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<div class="ml-3">
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<span class="font-medium">资源壁垒</span>：能耗指标极度稀缺，<span class="highlight">松江、临港、青浦三大片区新增机柜指标 80% 流向国资背景企业</span>（云赛智联、数据港等）。
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</div>
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</li>
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<div class="flex-shrink-0 h-5 w-5 text-blue-400 mt-0.5">3</div>
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<div class="ml-3">
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<span class="font-medium">国产替代窗口</span>：2025 年 <span class="highlight">70% 自主可控算力占比</span> 硬约束，华为昇腾、沐曦、壁仞等本地 GPU 企业获得政府集采优先权。
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</div>
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</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="card rounded-xl p-6">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-4 text-purple-400">市场热度与预期差</h3>
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<div class="mb-4">
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<p class="font-medium mb-2">市场热度</p>
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<p>2024Q4 以来，上海算力相关路演/研报数量 <span class="highlight">环比上升 220%</span>，但二级市场仍把主题当"IDC 旧瓶"，情绪处于"政策→业绩"验证过渡期。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<p class="font-medium mb-2">预期差</p>
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<p>市场普遍忽视"算力交易平台"带来的<span class="highlight">二次变现</span>：调度服务费（≈租金 5-8%）+ 数据资产运营分成，<span class="highlight">云赛智联等平台型公司 2025E 额外 EPS 增厚 0.15-0.20 元</span>，当前估值未计入。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 关键催化剂 -->
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<div class="card rounded-xl p-6 mb-8">
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<h2 class="section-title">关键催化剂</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6 mt-4">
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-lg font-bold mb-3 text-green-400">近期（3-6 个月）</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-2">
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<i class="fas fa-chevron-right text-green-400 mt-1 mr-2 text-sm"></i>
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<div><span class="highlight">2025-08 松江二期首批机柜交付</span>（云赛智联 3,000 柜，上架率>90%）。</div>
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</li>
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<i class="fas fa-chevron-right text-green-400 mt-1 mr-2 text-sm"></i>
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<div><span class="highlight">上海算力交易平台首批商业合同落地</span>（预计 10 亿元以上）。</div>
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</li>
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<i class="fas fa-chevron-right text-green-400 mt-1 mr-2 text-sm"></i>
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<div><span class="highlight">国产 GPU 万卡集群验收</span>（壁仞 BR100、沐曦 C500 在临港节点）。</div>
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</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-lg font-bold mb-3 text-yellow-400">长期（2025-2027）</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-2">
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<i class="fas fa-chevron-right text-yellow-400 mt-1 mr-2 text-sm"></i>
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<div><span class="highlight">"沪算沪用"生态闭环</span>：政府数据+企业模型+国资算力形成"数据飞轮"。</div>
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</li>
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<i class="fas fa-chevron-right text-yellow-400 mt-1 mr-2 text-sm"></i>
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<div><span class="highlight">长三角一体化调度</span>：上海枢纽节点与芜湖、青浦集群并网，<span class="highlight">跨域调度费规模 2027E 达 40 亿元/年</span>。</div>
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</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 产业链图谱 -->
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<div class="card rounded-xl p-6 mb-8">
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<h2 class="section-title">产业链图谱</h2>
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<div class="mt-4">
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<div class="flex flex-wrap items-center justify-center gap-4 mb-6">
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<div class="text-center">
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<div class="w-24 h-24 rounded-full bg-blue-900/50 flex items-center justify-center mx-auto mb-2 border-2 border-blue-500">
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<span class="text-sm font-medium">上游</span>
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</div>
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<div class="text-sm">国产 GPU<br>服务器</div>
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</div>
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<div class="text-2xl text-slate-500">→</div>
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<div class="text-center">
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<div class="w-24 h-24 rounded-full bg-purple-900/50 flex items-center justify-center mx-auto mb-2 border-2 border-purple-500">
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<span class="text-sm font-medium">中游</span>
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</div>
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<div class="text-sm">IDC 运营<br>调度平台</div>
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</div>
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<div class="text-2xl text-slate-500">→</div>
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<div class="text-center">
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<div class="w-24 h-24 rounded-full bg-green-900/50 flex items-center justify-center mx-auto mb-2 border-2 border-green-500">
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<span class="text-sm font-medium">下游</span>
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</div>
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<div class="text-sm">大模型<br>应用场景</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="text-center text-sm text-slate-400">
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上游：国产 GPU（壁仞、沐曦、燧原）→ 服务器（中科曙光、浪潮）<br>
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中游：IDC 运营（云赛智联、数据港、宝信软件）→ 调度平台（上海超算中心、无问芯穹）<br>
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下游：大模型（MiniMax、阶跃星辰）、金融/医疗/汽车场景
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 关联股票表格 -->
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<div class="card rounded-xl p-6 mb-8">
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<h2 class="section-title">关联股票</h2>
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<div class="table-container mt-4">
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<table class="w-full">
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<thead>
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<tr>
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<th>项目</th>
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<th>公司</th>
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<th>相关性</th>
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<th>行业</th>
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<th>产业链位置</th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody>
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<tr>
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<td>上海国资</td>
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<td>云赛智联</td>
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<td>上海国资委；旗下上海科技拥有宝山云计算中心、宝山大数据中心、松江大数据中心等机柜资源</td>
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<td><span class="industry-tag tag-infrastructure">数据中心运营</span></td>
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<td>算力基础设施</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td>上海国资</td>
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<td>数据港</td>
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<td>上海静安国资委；国内少数获得多家世界级互联网公司认可的专业数据中心服务商</td>
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<td><span class="industry-tag tag-service">数据中心服务</span></td>
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<td>算力基础设施</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td>上海国资</td>
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<td>上海建科</td>
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<td>上海国资委；数据中心节能</td>
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<td><span class="industry-tag tag-support">数据中心节能技术</span></td>
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<td>算力基础设施配套</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td>上海国资</td>
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<td>动力新科</td>
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<td>上海国资委；柴油发动机（数据中心后备应急电源）</td>
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<td><span class="industry-tag tag-support">电力设备</span></td>
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<td>算力基础设施配套</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td>上海国资</td>
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<td>新华传媒</td>
|
||
<td>上海国资委；学校英语阅读素材语料</td>
|
||
<td><span class="industry-tag tag-application">教育出版</span></td>
|
||
<td>算力应用层（语料资源）</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>上海本地股（非国资）</td>
|
||
<td>威士顿</td>
|
||
<td>基础平台类软件产品主要系为企业数据中心提供IaaS层（基础设施层）操作系统、虚拟化资源池管理的软件产品</td>
|
||
<td><span class="industry-tag tag-software">基础软件</span></td>
|
||
<td>算力软件层</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>上海本地股（非国资）</td>
|
||
<td>科泰电源</td>
|
||
<td>公司可为数据中心机房提供备用电源</td>
|
||
<td><span class="industry-tag tag-support">电力设备</span></td>
|
||
<td>算力基础设施配套</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>上海本地股（非国资）</td>
|
||
<td>良信股份</td>
|
||
<td>产品应用于数据中心机房配电、智能监控、智慧运维等领域</td>
|
||
<td><span class="industry-tag tag-support">智能配电</span></td>
|
||
<td>算力基础设施配套</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>上海本地股（非国资）</td>
|
||
<td>新炬网络</td>
|
||
<td>IT数据中心运维产品及服务</td>
|
||
<td><span class="industry-tag tag-service">IT运维服务</span></td>
|
||
<td>算力服务层</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>上海本地股（非国资）</td>
|
||
<td>城地香江</td>
|
||
<td>公司为上海电信客户字节提供定制化数据中心服务</td>
|
||
<td><span class="industry-tag tag-service">IDC服务</span></td>
|
||
<td>算力基础设施</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>上海本地股（非国资）</td>
|
||
<td>安诺其</td>
|
||
<td>旗下亘聪科技布局算力及AI人工智能业务</td>
|
||
<td><span class="industry-tag tag-application">AI算力服务</span></td>
|
||
<td>算力应用层</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>上海本地股（非国资）</td>
|
||
<td>宝信软件</td>
|
||
<td>宝之云算力中心；上海电信IDC业务</td>
|
||
<td><span class="industry-tag tag-service">IDC服务</span></td>
|
||
<td>算力基础设施</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>上海本地股（非国资）</td>
|
||
<td>优刻得</td>
|
||
<td>上海青浦数据中心；第三方云计算服务商</td>
|
||
<td><span class="industry-tag tag-service">云计算服务</span></td>
|
||
<td>算力服务层</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>上海本地股（非国资）</td>
|
||
<td>天玑科技</td>
|
||
<td>天玑智能算力管理平台</td>
|
||
<td><span class="industry-tag tag-software">智能算力管理</span></td>
|
||
<td>算力软件层</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>上海本地股（非国资）</td>
|
||
<td>网宿科技</td>
|
||
<td>子公司绿色云图推广液冷技术；子公司爱捷云搭建算力云平台，提供算力服务</td>
|
||
<td><span class="industry-tag tag-support tag-service">液冷技术/算力云服务</span></td>
|
||
<td>算力基础设施配套/算力服务层</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>上海本地股（非国资）</td>
|
||
<td>恒为科技</td>
|
||
<td>公司智能系统平台业务为包括数据中心等领域提供可集成、可二次开发的系统平台或解决方案</td>
|
||
<td><span class="industry-tag tag-software">智能系统平台</span></td>
|
||
<td>算力软件层</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>上海本地股（非国资）</td>
|
||
<td>汇纳科技</td>
|
||
<td>算力业务子公司四川汇算智算；发布了线下实体商业语料库</td>
|
||
<td><span class="industry-tag tag-application">商业语料库</span></td>
|
||
<td>算力应用层（数据资源）</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 风险与挑战 -->
|
||
<div class="card rounded-xl p-6 mb-8">
|
||
<h2 class="section-title">潜在风险与挑战</h2>
|
||
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6 mt-4">
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="text-lg font-bold mb-3 text-red-400">技术风险</h3>
|
||
<p>国产 GPU <span class="highlight">CUDA 生态缺口</span>导致迁移成本>20%，可能限制中小企业采用。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="text-lg font-bold mb-3 text-red-400">商业化风险</h3>
|
||
<p>算力券补贴 <span class="highlight">2026 年后或退坡</span>，租金价格面临市场化压力。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="text-lg font-bold mb-3 text-red-400">政策风险</h3>
|
||
<p>若国家收紧能耗双控，<span class="highlight">上海新增机柜指标可能下调 10-15%</span>。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="text-lg font-bold mb-3 text-red-400">信息矛盾</h3>
|
||
<p>部分路演称"2025 年 30 EFLOPS"为 FP16，而官方文件为 FP32，<span class="highlight">单位差异导致需求预期偏差约 1.8 倍</span>。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 综合结论 -->
|
||
<div class="card rounded-xl p-6 mb-8">
|
||
<h2 class="section-title">综合结论与投资启示</h2>
|
||
<div class="mt-4 space-y-4">
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="text-lg font-bold mb-2 text-cyan-400">阶段判断</h3>
|
||
<p>上海算力正从"政策主题"迈向"订单+业绩"驱动，<span class="highlight">2025H2 将进入基本面主升浪</span>。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="text-lg font-bold mb-2 text-cyan-400">最具价值方向</h3>
|
||
<p><span class="highlight">国资 IDC 运营商（云赛智联、数据港）+ 国产 GPU 调度服务商（壁仞、沐曦）</span>，前者享受租金剪刀差，后者受益于政府集采。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="text-lg font-bold mb-2 text-cyan-400">关键跟踪指标</h3>
|
||
<ul class="space-y-2">
|
||
<li class="flex items-start">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-check-circle text-cyan-400 mt-1 mr-2"></i>
|
||
<div><span class="highlight">松江/临港机柜月度上架率</span>（>85% 为健康）；</div>
|
||
</li>
|
||
<li class="flex items-start">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-check-circle text-cyan-400 mt-1 mr-2"></i>
|
||
<div><span class="highlight">国产 GPU 万卡集群平均无故障时间</span>（MTBF>1000 小时为及格线）；</div>
|
||
</li>
|
||
<li class="flex items-start">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-check-circle text-cyan-400 mt-1 mr-2"></i>
|
||
<div><span class="highlight">算力交易平台月度撮合金额</span>（2025E 需>5 亿元才能支撑估值）。</div>
|
||
</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
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|
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``` |