1007 lines
49 KiB
HTML
1007 lines
49 KiB
HTML
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<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-CN">
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<head>
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<!-- Nucleo Icons -->
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.card {
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.timeline-dot {
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}
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#particles-js {
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position: fixed;
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left: 0;
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z-index: -1;
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}
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.table-responsive {
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overflow-x: visible;
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}
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@media (max-width: 768px) {
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.card {
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margin-bottom: 1rem;
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}
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.table-responsive {
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overflow-x: auto;
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}
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</head>
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<body>
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<div id="particles-js"></div>
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<div class="container mx-auto px-4 py-8 max-w-7xl">
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<!-- 标题部分 -->
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<div class="text-center mb-10">
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<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-5xl font-bold gradient-text mb-4">低空物流概念分析</h1>
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<p class="text-lg text-gray-600 max-w-3xl mx-auto">低空物流已从"政策驱动+技术验证"进入"证照落地+场景放量"的拐点期，2025-2026年将是订单与补贴共振的爆发窗口</p>
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</div>
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<!-- 概念事件时间轴 -->
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<div class="card rounded-xl p-6 mb-8 hover-scale">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-800 mb-6 flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-history text-blue-500 mr-3"></i>
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概念事件时间轴
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</h2>
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<div class="relative pl-8">
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<div class="timeline-item relative mb-6">
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<div class="timeline-dot"></div>
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<div class="timeline-line"></div>
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<div class="bg-blue-50 rounded-lg p-4">
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<div class="flex flex-col md:flex-row md:items-center md:justify-between">
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<span class="font-semibold text-blue-700">2023-06</span>
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<span class="text-gray-800 mt-1 md:mt-0">《无人驾驶航空器飞行管理暂行条例》发布，首次明确120米以下"开放空域"</span>
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<span class="text-sm text-gray-500 mt-1 md:mt-0 md:ml-4">国务院</span>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item relative mb-6">
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<div class="timeline-dot"></div>
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<div class="timeline-line"></div>
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<div class="bg-blue-50 rounded-lg p-4">
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<div class="flex flex-col md:flex-row md:items-center md:justify-between">
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<span class="font-semibold text-blue-700">2023-12</span>
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<span class="text-gray-800 mt-1 md:mt-0">中央经济工作会议首次将"低空经济"列为战略性新兴产业</span>
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<span class="text-sm text-gray-500 mt-1 md:mt-0 md:ml-4">新华社</span>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item relative mb-6">
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<div class="timeline-dot"></div>
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<div class="timeline-line"></div>
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<div class="bg-blue-50 rounded-lg p-4">
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<div class="flex flex-col md:flex-row md:items-center md:justify-between">
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<span class="font-semibold text-blue-700">2024-03</span>
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<span class="text-gray-800 mt-1 md:mt-0">四部委《通用航空装备创新应用实施方案》提出"干-支-末"无人机配送网络，2027年物流场景商业化</span>
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<span class="text-sm text-gray-500 mt-1 md:mt-0 md:ml-4">工信部等</span>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item relative mb-6">
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<div class="timeline-dot"></div>
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<div class="timeline-line"></div>
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<div class="bg-blue-50 rounded-lg p-4">
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||
<div class="flex flex-col md:flex-row md:items-center md:justify-between">
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<span class="font-semibold text-blue-700">2024-11</span>
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<span class="text-gray-800 mt-1 md:mt-0">中办国办《有效降低全社会物流成本行动方案》点名"无人机配送"</span>
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<span class="text-sm text-gray-500 mt-1 md:mt-0 md:ml-4">新华社</span>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item relative mb-6">
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<div class="timeline-dot"></div>
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<div class="timeline-line"></div>
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<div class="bg-green-50 rounded-lg p-4 border-l-4 border-green-500">
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<div class="flex flex-col md:flex-row md:items-center md:justify-between">
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<span class="font-semibold text-green-700">2025-04</span>
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<span class="text-gray-800 mt-1 md:mt-0 font-medium">美团获全国首张低空物流全境覆盖运营合格证（OC），可全国商业化运营</span>
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<span class="text-sm text-gray-500 mt-1 md:mt-0 md:ml-4">公司公告</span>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item relative mb-6">
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<div class="timeline-dot"></div>
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<div class="timeline-line"></div>
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<div class="bg-blue-50 rounded-lg p-4">
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<div class="flex flex-col md:flex-row md:items-center md:justify-between">
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<span class="font-semibold text-blue-700">2025-05</span>
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<span class="text-gray-800 mt-1 md:mt-0">国家邮政局发文要求"因地制宜开展低空寄递服务"，明确跨省/城际无人机运输试点</span>
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<span class="text-sm text-gray-500 mt-1 md:mt-0 md:ml-4">国家邮政局</span>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item relative">
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<div class="timeline-dot"></div>
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<div class="bg-blue-50 rounded-lg p-4">
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||
<div class="flex flex-col md:flex-row md:items-center md:justify-between">
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<span class="font-semibold text-blue-700">2025-06</span>
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<span class="text-gray-800 mt-1 md:mt-0">重庆发布首批低空经济场景清单，42项机会清单中17项直接指向低空货运</span>
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<span class="text-sm text-gray-500 mt-1 md:mt-0 md:ml-4">重庆市发改委</span>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 核心观点摘要 -->
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<div class="card rounded-xl p-6 mb-8 hover-scale">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-800 mb-6 flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-lightbulb text-yellow-500 mr-3"></i>
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核心观点摘要
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</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
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<div class="bg-gradient-to-br from-blue-50 to-indigo-50 rounded-lg p-5 border border-blue-100">
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||
<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-blue-800 mb-3">阶段判断</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-700">低空物流已从"政策驱动+技术验证"进入<strong class="text-blue-600">"证照落地+场景放量"</strong>的拐点期，<strong class="text-blue-600">2025-2026年将是订单与补贴共振的爆发窗口</strong>。</p>
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||
</div>
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||
<div class="bg-gradient-to-br from-green-50 to-teal-50 rounded-lg p-5 border border-green-100">
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||
<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-green-800 mb-3">核心驱动力</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-700">政策端空域开放+补贴刺激（单架次补贴<strong class="text-green-600">90元</strong>），供给端适航证集中落地，需求端快递/即时配送降本增效诉求强烈（可降低综合成本<strong class="text-green-600">30%+</strong>）。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-gradient-to-br from-purple-50 to-pink-50 rounded-lg p-5 border border-purple-100">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-purple-800 mb-3">未来潜力</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-700">2030年市场规模中性预测<strong class="text-purple-600">2000-2700亿元</strong>（中金/东北证券），对应渗透率仅<strong class="text-purple-600">5-8%</strong>，空间巨大。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 核心驱动力拆解 -->
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<div class="card rounded-xl p-6 mb-8 hover-scale">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-800 mb-6 flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-chart-line text-green-500 mr-3"></i>
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核心驱动力拆解
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</h2>
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<div class="overflow-x-auto">
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<table class="min-w-full divide-y divide-gray-200">
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<thead class="bg-gray-50">
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<tr>
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<th class="px-6 py-3 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">维度</th>
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<th class="px-6 py-3 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">数据验证</th>
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<th class="px-6 py-3 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">来源</th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody class="bg-white divide-y divide-gray-200">
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<tr>
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<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap font-medium text-gray-900">政策</td>
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<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">2024-2025年已有<strong class="text-blue-600">27省市</strong>将低空经济写入政府工作报告，深圳/合肥/重庆等地补贴<strong class="text-blue-600">20-100万元/航线</strong></td>
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<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-500 text-sm">各地政府官网</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap font-medium text-gray-900">技术</td>
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<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">美团第四代无人机载重<strong class="text-blue-600">10kg</strong>、航程<strong class="text-blue-600">20km</strong>、成本<strong class="text-blue-600">1.14元/单</strong>（中通海燕数据）</td>
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<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-500 text-sm">中通研究院</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap font-medium text-gray-900">需求</td>
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<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">2024年快递业务量<strong class="text-blue-600">1750亿件</strong>，末端配送成本占比<strong class="text-blue-600">40%+</strong>，无人机可降本<strong class="text-blue-600">30%</strong></td>
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<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-500 text-sm">国家邮政局</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap font-medium text-gray-900">基础设施</td>
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<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">2024年全国新开低空物流航线<strong class="text-blue-600">140条</strong>（90%为末端），深圳规划<strong class="text-blue-600">600个起降点</strong></td>
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<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-500 text-sm">中国物流与采购联合会</td>
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</tr>
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</tbody>
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</table>
|
||
</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 市场热度与情绪 -->
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<div class="card rounded-xl p-6 mb-8 hover-scale">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-800 mb-6 flex items-center">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-fire text-red-500 mr-3"></i>
|
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市场热度与情绪
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</h2>
|
||
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
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||
<div class="bg-gradient-to-br from-red-50 to-orange-50 rounded-lg p-5 border border-red-100">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-red-800 mb-3">研报密度</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-700">2024年5月-2025年6月，<strong class="text-red-600">12篇深度报告</strong>聚焦低空物流（中金、东北、开源等），主题热度持续<strong class="text-red-600">12个月</strong>。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="bg-gradient-to-br from-yellow-50 to-amber-50 rounded-lg p-5 border border-yellow-100">
|
||
<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-yellow-800 mb-3">资金动向</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-700">深城交、宗申动力等标的<strong class="text-yellow-600">2025Q2机构调研频次环比+300%</strong>（Wind数据）。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="bg-gradient-to-br from-purple-50 to-indigo-50 rounded-lg p-5 border border-purple-100">
|
||
<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-purple-800 mb-3">情绪分歧</h3>
|
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<p class="text-gray-700">乐观派（东北军工）认为2026年订单将"井喷"，谨慎派（中金）指出<strong class="text-purple-600">适航证审批周期可能延长</strong>（eVTOL需2-3年）。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 预期差分析 -->
|
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<div class="card rounded-xl p-6 mb-8 hover-scale">
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||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-800 mb-6 flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-balance-scale text-indigo-500 mr-3"></i>
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预期差分析
|
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</h2>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="min-w-full divide-y divide-gray-200">
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<thead class="bg-gray-50">
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<tr>
|
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<th class="px-6 py-3 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">市场共识</th>
|
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<th class="px-6 py-3 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">潜在预期差</th>
|
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<th class="px-6 py-3 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">验证来源</th>
|
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody class="bg-white divide-y divide-gray-200">
|
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<tr>
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<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">"末端配送先行"</td>
|
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<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700"><strong class="text-indigo-600">支线物流（100-500km）</strong>可能更快落地：峰飞V2000CG已获TC，载重<strong class="text-indigo-600">500kg</strong>、航程<strong class="text-indigo-600">250km</strong>，吨公里成本<strong class="text-indigo-600">2.69元</strong>（低于公路3元）</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-500 text-sm">峰飞航空路演</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">"补贴依赖"</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700"><strong class="text-indigo-600">部分场景已盈利</strong>：黄山景区无人机运输生鲜，<strong class="text-indigo-600">成本2.8元/单 vs 挑山工8元/单</strong>，无需补贴</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-500 text-sm">天风建筑建材专家</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">"美团一家独大"</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700"><strong class="text-indigo-600">邮政系崛起</strong>：中国邮政+绿能慧充（中创航空）重载无人机<strong class="text-indigo-600">100kg级</strong>已投运，2025年或放量</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-500 text-sm">公司互动易</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 关键催化剂与路径 -->
|
||
<div class="card rounded-xl p-6 mb-8 hover-scale">
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-800 mb-6 flex items-center">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-rocket text-purple-500 mr-3"></i>
|
||
关键催化剂与路径
|
||
</h2>
|
||
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold text-gray-800 mb-4">近期催化剂（3-6个月）</h3>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto mb-8">
|
||
<table class="min-w-full divide-y divide-gray-200">
|
||
<thead class="bg-gray-50">
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th class="px-6 py-3 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">事件</th>
|
||
<th class="px-6 py-3 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">时间</th>
|
||
<th class="px-6 py-3 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">影响</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody class="bg-white divide-y divide-gray-200">
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700 font-medium">《低空经济产业促进条例》细则落地</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">2025Q3</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">明确空域划分、补贴标准</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700 font-medium">美团OC后首条跨省航线（深圳-珠海）商业化</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">2025Q3</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">验证盈利模式</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700 font-medium">峰飞V2000CG批量交付（顺丰100架订单）</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">2025Q4</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">支线物流标杆案例</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold text-gray-800 mb-4">长期路径（2025-2030）</h3>
|
||
<div class="bg-gradient-to-r from-blue-50 to-purple-50 rounded-lg p-6 border border-blue-100">
|
||
<div class="flex flex-col md:flex-row items-center justify-between space-y-4 md:space-y-0">
|
||
<div class="text-center">
|
||
<div class="w-16 h-16 rounded-full bg-blue-500 flex items-center justify-center mx-auto mb-2">
|
||
<span class="text-white font-bold">2025</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-medium text-gray-700">证照落地</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="text-blue-500 text-2xl">→</div>
|
||
<div class="text-center">
|
||
<div class="w-16 h-16 rounded-full bg-indigo-500 flex items-center justify-center mx-auto mb-2">
|
||
<span class="text-white font-bold">2026</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-medium text-gray-700">补贴驱动放量</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="text-blue-500 text-2xl">→</div>
|
||
<div class="text-center">
|
||
<div class="w-16 h-16 rounded-full bg-purple-500 flex items-center justify-center mx-auto mb-2">
|
||
<span class="text-white font-bold">2027</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-medium text-gray-700">成本拐点<br><span class="text-xs">(电池降本50%)</span></p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="text-blue-500 text-2xl">→</div>
|
||
<div class="text-center">
|
||
<div class="w-16 h-16 rounded-full bg-pink-500 flex items-center justify-center mx-auto mb-2">
|
||
<span class="text-white font-bold">2028</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-medium text-gray-700">全场景渗透<br><span class="text-xs">(医疗/应急)</span></p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="text-blue-500 text-2xl">→</div>
|
||
<div class="text-center">
|
||
<div class="w-16 h-16 rounded-full bg-red-500 flex items-center justify-center mx-auto mb-2">
|
||
<span class="text-white font-bold">2030</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-medium text-gray-700">市场化运营<br><span class="text-xs">(无补贴)</span></p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 产业链与核心公司 -->
|
||
<div class="card rounded-xl p-6 mb-8 hover-scale">
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-800 mb-6 flex items-center">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-sitemap text-teal-500 mr-3"></i>
|
||
产业链与核心公司
|
||
</h2>
|
||
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold text-gray-800 mb-4">产业链图谱</h3>
|
||
<div class="bg-gradient-to-r from-teal-50 to-cyan-50 rounded-lg p-6 border border-teal-100 mb-8">
|
||
<div class="flex flex-col md:flex-row items-center justify-between space-y-4 md:space-y-0">
|
||
<div class="text-center flex-1">
|
||
<div class="bg-teal-500 text-white rounded-lg p-4 mb-2">
|
||
<p class="font-bold">上游（30%价值）</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-700">电池/电机（宁德时代/卧龙电驱）</p>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-700">飞控系统（零度智控）</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="text-teal-500 text-2xl">→</div>
|
||
<div class="text-center flex-1">
|
||
<div class="bg-cyan-500 text-white rounded-lg p-4 mb-2">
|
||
<p class="font-bold">中游（50%）</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-700">整机制造（美团/峰飞/航天彩虹）</p>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-700">适航认证（民航局授权机构）</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="text-teal-500 text-2xl">→</div>
|
||
<div class="text-center flex-1">
|
||
<div class="bg-blue-500 text-white rounded-lg p-4 mb-2">
|
||
<p class="font-bold">下游（20%）</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-700">运营（顺丰/邮政/美团）</p>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-700">基础设施（深城交/莱斯信息）</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold text-gray-800 mb-4">核心玩家对比</h3>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto mb-8">
|
||
<table class="min-w-full divide-y divide-gray-200">
|
||
<thead class="bg-gray-50">
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th class="px-6 py-3 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">公司</th>
|
||
<th class="px-6 py-3 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">定位</th>
|
||
<th class="px-6 py-3 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">进展</th>
|
||
<th class="px-6 py-3 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">风险</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody class="bg-white divide-y divide-gray-200">
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap font-medium text-gray-900">美团-W</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">末端配送龙头</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">全国首张OC，53条航线，45万单</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">政策限制城市空域</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap font-medium text-gray-900">顺丰控股</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">支线+末端全链路</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">丰翼科技600条航线，2025年100架V2000CG订单</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">重资产投入压力</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap font-medium text-gray-900">航天彩虹</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">大型无人机</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">YH-1000首飞，载重1.2吨，航程1500km</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">适航证进度慢于预期</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap font-medium text-gray-900">绿能慧充</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">邮政系核心</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">中创航空100kg级无人机已投运，中国邮政合作</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">订单规模待验证</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap font-medium text-gray-900">深城交</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">基础设施</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">深圳5.4亿空管系统中标方，20%份额</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">地方财政支付能力</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold text-gray-800 mb-4">验证与证伪</h3>
|
||
<div class="bg-yellow-50 rounded-lg p-5 border-l-4 border-yellow-500">
|
||
<ul class="space-y-3">
|
||
<li class="flex items-start">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-exclamation-triangle text-yellow-500 mt-1 mr-3"></i>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<span class="font-medium text-gray-800">证伪点1：</span>
|
||
<span class="text-gray-700">研报称"2025年支线物流渗透率5%"，但<strong class="text-yellow-600">峰飞V2000CG目前仅交付2架</strong>（2025Q1），需跟踪订单落地。</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</li>
|
||
<li class="flex items-start">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-exclamation-triangle text-yellow-500 mt-1 mr-3"></i>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<span class="font-medium text-gray-800">证伪点2：</span>
|
||
<span class="text-gray-700">莱斯信息空管系统毛利率<strong class="text-yellow-600">仅30%</strong>（东北军工路演），低于市场预期的高毛利软件业务。</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 潜在风险与挑战 -->
|
||
<div class="card rounded-xl p-6 mb-8 hover-scale">
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-800 mb-6 flex items-center">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-exclamation-triangle text-red-500 mr-3"></i>
|
||
潜在风险与挑战
|
||
</h2>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="min-w-full divide-y divide-gray-200">
|
||
<thead class="bg-gray-50">
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th class="px-6 py-3 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">风险类型</th>
|
||
<th class="px-6 py-3 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">具体表现</th>
|
||
<th class="px-6 py-3 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">数据支撑</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody class="bg-white divide-y divide-gray-200">
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap font-medium text-gray-900">技术瓶颈</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">电池能量密度限制：当前无人机续航<strong class="text-red-600"><50km</strong>（美团数据），固态电池量产需2027年后</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-500 text-sm">宁德时代路演</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap font-medium text-gray-900">商业化风险</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">补贴退坡后盈利性：深圳补贴<strong class="text-red-600">90元/架次</strong>（2025年），2027年或取消</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-500 text-sm">深圳交通局文件</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap font-medium text-gray-900">政策风险</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">空域审批权仍在军方，<strong class="text-red-600">跨区域航线需东部战区批复</strong>（如长三角海岛航线）</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-500 text-sm">重庆发改委专家</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap font-medium text-gray-900">信息矛盾</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">研报预测2030年市场规模<strong class="text-red-600">2000亿</strong>，但路演专家直言"<strong class="text-red-600">无补贴场景下90%企业亏损</strong>"</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-500 text-sm">天风建筑建材会议</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 综合结论与投资启示 -->
|
||
<div class="card rounded-xl p-6 mb-8 hover-scale">
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-800 mb-6 flex items-center">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-trophy text-yellow-500 mr-3"></i>
|
||
综合结论与投资启示
|
||
</h2>
|
||
|
||
<div class="bg-gradient-to-br from-yellow-50 to-amber-50 rounded-lg p-6 border border-yellow-100 mb-6">
|
||
<p class="text-lg font-medium text-gray-800 mb-4">阶段判断</p>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-700">低空物流处于<strong class="text-yellow-600">"主题炒作→基本面验证"过渡期</strong>，2025-2026年订单与补贴是核心验证指标。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="bg-gradient-to-br from-green-50 to-emerald-50 rounded-lg p-6 border border-green-100 mb-6">
|
||
<p class="text-lg font-medium text-gray-800 mb-4">最具价值环节</p>
|
||
<ol class="list-decimal pl-5 space-y-2 text-gray-700">
|
||
<li><strong class="text-green-600">整机制造</strong>：美团（OC稀缺性）、峰飞（支线技术领先）</li>
|
||
<li><strong class="text-green-600">核心零部件</strong>：卧龙电驱（电机）、宗申动力（活塞发动机）</li>
|
||
<li><strong class="text-green-600">基础设施</strong>：深城交（深圳空管系统唯一中标方）</li>
|
||
</ol>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="bg-gradient-to-br from-blue-50 to-indigo-50 rounded-lg p-6 border border-blue-100 mb-6">
|
||
<p class="text-lg font-medium text-gray-800 mb-4">关键跟踪指标</p>
|
||
<ul class="space-y-2 text-gray-700">
|
||
<li class="flex items-start">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-chart-line text-blue-500 mt-1 mr-3"></i>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<span class="font-medium">订单：</span>
|
||
<span>2025H2顺丰V2000CG交付量（目标100架）</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</li>
|
||
<li class="flex items-start">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-coins text-blue-500 mt-1 mr-3"></i>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<span class="font-medium">补贴：</span>
|
||
<span>2026年各地补贴退坡节奏</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</li>
|
||
<li class="flex items-start">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-battery-half text-blue-500 mt-1 mr-3"></i>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<span class="font-medium">成本：</span>
|
||
<span>电池价格（2025年需降至<strong class="text-blue-600">0.6元/Wh</strong>以下才能无补贴盈利）</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="bg-red-50 rounded-lg p-6 border-l-4 border-red-500">
|
||
<p class="text-lg font-medium text-red-800 mb-2">风险提示</p>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-700">若2025Q3美团跨省航线运营数据不及预期（如单架次日均订单<50单），可能引发板块调整。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 关联股票数据 -->
|
||
<div class="card rounded-xl p-6 mb-8 hover-scale">
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-800 mb-6 flex items-center">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-chart-bar text-blue-500 mr-3"></i>
|
||
关联股票数据
|
||
</h2>
|
||
<div class="table-responsive">
|
||
<table class="table align-items-center mb-0">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th class="text-uppercase text-secondary text-xxs font-weight-bolder opacity-7">股票</th>
|
||
<th class="text-uppercase text-secondary text-xxs font-weight-bolder opacity-7 ps-2">分类</th>
|
||
<th class="text-uppercase text-secondary text-xxs font-weight-bolder opacity-7 ps-2">项目</th>
|
||
<th class="text-uppercase text-secondary text-xxs font-weight-bolder opacity-7 ps-2">产业链</th>
|
||
<th class="text-uppercase text-secondary text-xxs font-weight-bolder opacity-7 ps-2">消息来源</th>
|
||
<th class="text-uppercase text-secondary text-xxs font-weight-bolder opacity-7 ps-2">原因</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<div class="d-flex px-2 py-1">
|
||
<div class="my-auto">
|
||
<h6 class="mb-0 text-sm font-weight-bold">深城交</h6>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">运营与服务</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">低空特殊物流、无人物流等商业服务</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">低空基础设施</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">公司公告</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm mb-0">公司牵头的香港低空基础设施大装置（Micro-Airport）项目及参与的跨境物流项目入选香港低空经济"监管沙盒"（监管试验计划）首批试点名单</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<div class="d-flex px-2 py-1">
|
||
<div class="my-auto">
|
||
<h6 class="mb-0 text-sm font-weight-bold">绿能慧充</h6>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">运营与服务</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">飞行投送验证</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">无人机租赁服务</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">公司调研/公司互动</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm mb-0">中国邮政前期开展飞行投送验证，中创航空（控股子公司）承担运输无人机飞行服务；中创航空与中国邮政联合投标的某部运输无人机租赁服务采购项目已完成公示</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<div class="d-flex px-2 py-1">
|
||
<div class="my-auto">
|
||
<h6 class="mb-0 text-sm font-weight-bold">天虹股份</h6>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">运营与服务</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">无人机配送模式</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">-</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">公司调研</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm mb-0">公司与美团自2022年共同探索的无人机配送模式，现有客运行中</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<div class="d-flex px-2 py-1">
|
||
<div class="my-auto">
|
||
<h6 class="mb-0 text-sm font-weight-bold">纵横股份</h6>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">运营与服务</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">4吨级物流无人机方案论证</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">低空经济运营服务</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">公司调研/官媒报道/工商信息</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm mb-0">四川省低空经济产业发展有限公司（持股19%）是四川省首个由省属国有企业、地方政府平台公司和上市企业共同成立的低空经济运营服务企业，将主要开展无人机公共服务和运输服务</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<div class="d-flex px-2 py-1">
|
||
<div class="my-auto">
|
||
<h6 class="mb-0 text-sm font-weight-bold">国安达</h6>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">运营与服务</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">低空经济领域战略合作</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">无人机配送服务</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">公司官微</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm mb-0">公司与多家企业达成低空经济领域战略合作，试运行无人机配送服务，研制物流运输无人机相应机型，探索无人机在物流配送领域的新模式</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<div class="d-flex px-2 py-1">
|
||
<div class="my-auto">
|
||
<h6 class="mb-0 text-sm font-weight-bold">航天彩虹</h6>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">物流无人机</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">彩虹-YH1000无人物流机首飞</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">-</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">媒体报道/工商信息</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm mb-0">2025年5月22日，彩虹-YH1000无人物流机首飞成功</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<div class="d-flex px-2 py-1">
|
||
<div class="my-auto">
|
||
<h6 class="mb-0 text-sm font-weight-bold">航天电子</h6>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">物流无人机</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">2025世界无人机大会奖项</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">无人机运输机物流航线</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">工商信息/官方微信</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm mb-0">航天飞鹏（公司持股14.54%）荣获2025世界无人机大会"低空经济物流企业十强"奖项；2025年2月16日，榆林-蓝田大型无人运输机物流航线飞行圆满成功</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<div class="d-flex px-2 py-1">
|
||
<div class="my-auto">
|
||
<h6 class="mb-0 text-sm font-weight-bold">广联航空</h6>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">物流无人机</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">白鲸航空合作伙伴</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">无人机工艺装备研发</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">公司调研/官方网站</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm mb-0">公司为白鲸航线重要合作伙伴，已承担该机型部分工艺装备研发、复材零件制造、金属零件加工及部段铆接装配等工作。白鲸航线致力于打造国产自主可控的大型无人货运飞机</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<div class="d-flex px-2 py-1">
|
||
<div class="my-auto">
|
||
<h6 class="mb-0 text-sm font-weight-bold">显盈科技</h6>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">技术与系统支持</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">无人机精密结构件供应</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">无人机产品</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">公司互动</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm mb-0">公司子公司惠州耀盈精密为美团供应模具及精密结构件，主要是塑壳部件，用于组装生产无人机等产品</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<div class="d-flex px-2 py-1">
|
||
<div class="my-auto">
|
||
<h6 class="mb-0 text-sm font-weight-bold">四创电子</h6>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">技术与系统支持</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">低空微气象系统</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">城市空中交通</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">公司调研</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm mb-0">低空微气象系统为城市空中交通、应急救援、无人机物流等新业态提供全天候保障</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<div class="d-flex px-2 py-1">
|
||
<div class="my-auto">
|
||
<h6 class="mb-0 text-sm font-weight-bold">宗申动力</h6>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">技术与系统支持</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">低空经济发展方向</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">航空物流</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">公司调研</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm mb-0">控股子公司宗申航发的产品应用场景与低空经济发展方向吻合，随着国家低空开放政策实施，定制化航空物流、商业无人机技术等通航业务新兴领域的进一步推广和应用，宗申航发未来的发展空间有望得到进一步拓展</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<div class="d-flex px-2 py-1">
|
||
<div class="my-auto">
|
||
<h6 class="mb-0 text-sm font-weight-bold">智莱科技</h6>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">技术与系统支持</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">无人机物流应用场景</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">-</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">公司调研</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm mb-0">公司在无人机物流接收和保管及无人机保管和无人机电池充电的应用，没有形成批量</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<div class="d-flex px-2 py-1">
|
||
<div class="my-auto">
|
||
<h6 class="mb-0 text-sm font-weight-bold">嘉诚国际</h6>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">网络建设</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">智能化设施承接无人机城际运输</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">低空物流网络</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">公司互动</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm mb-0">公司规划建设智能化设施承接无人机城际运输及末端配送功能；构建覆盖"干线运输—支线分拨—末端配送"的低空物流网络</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<div class="d-flex px-2 py-1">
|
||
<div class="my-auto">
|
||
<h6 class="mb-0 text-sm font-weight-bold">莱斯信息</h6>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">网络建设</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">城市智慧空中出行场景</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">-</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-weight-bold mb-0">公司公告</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
<p class="text-sm mb-0">公司正在对即时配送、物流快递、市内载客、城际载客等城市智慧空中出行场景和创新型出行模式的运行概念进行深入研究与验证</p>
|
||
</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
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|
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``` |