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<!DOCTYPE html>
<html lang="zh-CN">
<head>
<meta charset="utf-8" />
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1, shrink-to-fit=no">
<title>柬泰战争概念分析报告</title>
<link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Inter:wght@300;400;500;600;700;800&display=swap" rel="stylesheet" />
<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/tailwindcss@2.2.19/dist/tailwind.min.css" rel="stylesheet">
<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@5/dist/full.min.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
<script src="https://cdn.tailwindcss.com"></script>
<link rel="stylesheet" href="https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/font-awesome/6.4.0/css/all.min.css">
<style>
body {
font-family: 'Inter', sans-serif;
background: linear-gradient(135deg, #1a202c 0%, #2d3748 100%);
min-height: 100vh;
}
.card {
background: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.95);
backdrop-filter: blur(10px);
border-radius: 16px;
box-shadow: 0 8px 32px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1);
}
.timeline-dot {
width: 12px;
height: 12px;
background-color: #4299e1;
border-radius: 50%;
position: absolute;
left: -6px;
top: 5px;
}
.timeline-line {
position: absolute;
left: 0;
top: 17px;
bottom: 0;
width: 1px;
background-color: #e2e8f0;
}
.gradient-text {
background: linear-gradient(135deg, #667eea 0%, #764ba2 100%);
-webkit-background-clip: text;
-webkit-text-fill-color: transparent;
background-clip: text;
}
.table-responsive {
overflow-x: auto;
}
.badge-category {
display: inline-block;
padding: 0.25rem 0.75rem;
border-radius: 9999px;
font-size: 0.75rem;
font-weight: 600;
}
.category-food {
background-color: #fef3c7;
color: #92400e;
}
.category-rubber {
background-color: #dbeafe;
color: #1e40af;
}
.category-rare-earth {
background-color: #ede9fe;
color: #5b21b6;
}
.category-military {
background-color: #fee2e2;
color: #991b1b;
}
@media (max-width: 768px) {
.card {
margin-bottom: 1rem;
}
}
</style>
</head>
<body class="p-4 md:p-8">
<div class="max-w-7xl mx-auto">
<!-- 标题部分 -->
<div class="text-center mb-10">
<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-5xl font-bold text-white mb-4">柬泰战争概念分析</h1>
<p class="text-xl text-gray-300">地缘冲突下的区域安全与供应链重构</p>
</div>
<!-- 概念概述卡片 -->
<div class="card p-6 mb-8">
<div class="flex items-center mb-4">
<div class="w-10 h-10 rounded-full bg-blue-500 flex items-center justify-center mr-3">
<i class="fas fa-exclamation-triangle text-white"></i>
</div>
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold gradient-text">概念事件概述</h2>
</div>
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
<div>
<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold text-gray-800 mb-2">背景与催化事件</h3>
<p class="text-gray-600 mb-4">2025年7月24日柬埔寨与泰国在边境争议地区爆发武装冲突导致8万柬埔寨平民逃离家园泰国关闭所有边境口岸。7月28日达成停火协议但局势依然紧张。</p>
<div class="bg-red-50 border-l-4 border-red-500 p-4 rounded">
<p class="text-red-700 font-medium">关键影响</p>
<p class="text-red-600 text-sm">东南亚地缘风险溢价上升,中国-东盟供应链避险需求增加</p>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold text-gray-800 mb-2">事件时间轴</h3>
<div class="relative pl-6">
<div class="timeline-line"></div>
<div class="relative mb-4">
<div class="timeline-dot"></div>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-600"><span class="font-semibold">6月24日</span>泰国关闭所有泰柬边境口岸</p>
</div>
<div class="relative mb-4">
<div class="timeline-dot"></div>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-600"><span class="font-semibold">7月24日</span>冲突爆发,柬军控制两处争议寺庙</p>
</div>
<div class="relative mb-4">
<div class="timeline-dot"></div>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-600"><span class="font-semibold">7月25日</span>联合国安理会召开紧急会议</p>
</div>
<div class="relative mb-4">
<div class="timeline-dot"></div>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-600"><span class="font-semibold">7月28日</span>达成停火协议</p>
</div>
<div class="relative">
<div class="timeline-dot"></div>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-600"><span class="font-semibold">8月1日</span>泰国移交被俘柬军士兵</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!-- 核心观点卡片 -->
<div class="card p-6 mb-8">
<div class="flex items-center mb-4">
<div class="w-10 h-10 rounded-full bg-purple-500 flex items-center justify-center mr-3">
<i class="fas fa-lightbulb text-white"></i>
</div>
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold gradient-text">核心观点摘要</h2>
</div>
<div class="bg-gradient-to-r from-purple-50 to-indigo-50 p-6 rounded-lg mb-6">
<p class="text-lg text-gray-800 italic">"柬泰战争已从突发地缘冲突演变为区域安全与供应链重构主题,短期受停火协议压制,但长期可能因边境争议未解而反复。核心驱动力是东南亚地缘风险溢价上升与中国-东盟供应链避险需求。"</p>
</div>
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-4">
<div class="bg-white p-4 rounded-lg shadow-sm border border-gray-100">
<h3 class="font-semibold text-gray-800 mb-2">核心驱动力</h3>
<ul class="text-sm text-gray-600 space-y-1">
<li>• 地缘风险溢价上升</li>
<li>• 供应链避险需求增加</li>
<li>• 橡胶、大米、稀土运输成本上升15%-20%</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="bg-white p-4 rounded-lg shadow-sm border border-gray-100">
<h3 class="font-semibold text-gray-800 mb-2">市场热度与情绪</h3>
<ul class="text-sm text-gray-600 space-y-1">
<li>• 7月24-29日报道量激增</li>
<li>• 研报对地缘冲突系统性低估</li>
<li>• 农产品出口商下跌,军工股上涨</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="bg-white p-4 rounded-lg shadow-sm border border-gray-100">
<h3 class="font-semibold text-gray-800 mb-2">预期差分析</h3>
<ul class="text-sm text-gray-600 space-y-1">
<li>• 研报未评估战争对产能冲击</li>
<li>• 橡胶转口贸易或转向越南</li>
<li>• 中策橡胶或受益价差套利</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!-- 产业链分析卡片 -->
<div class="card p-6 mb-8">
<div class="flex items-center mb-4">
<div class="w-10 h-10 rounded-full bg-green-500 flex items-center justify-center mr-3">
<i class="fas fa-project-diagram text-white"></i>
</div>
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold gradient-text">产业链与核心公司分析</h2>
</div>
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6 mb-6">
<div>
<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold text-gray-800 mb-3">产业链图谱</h3>
<div class="space-y-3">
<div class="flex items-start">
<div class="w-8 h-8 rounded-full bg-blue-100 flex items-center justify-center mr-3 flex-shrink-0">
<span class="text-blue-600 font-bold text-sm"></span>
</div>
<div>
<p class="font-medium text-gray-800">上游:资源开采</p>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-600">争议地区资源(稀土、橡胶种植园)→ 中国稀土、海南橡胶</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="flex items-start">
<div class="w-8 h-8 rounded-full bg-green-100 flex items-center justify-center mr-3 flex-shrink-0">
<span class="text-green-600 font-bold text-sm"></span>
</div>
<div>
<p class="font-medium text-gray-800">中游:物流与安防</p>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-600">中策橡胶(泰国出口)、天和防务(柬埔寨防空系统)</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="flex items-start">
<div class="w-8 h-8 rounded-full bg-purple-100 flex items-center justify-center mr-3 flex-shrink-0">
<span class="text-purple-600 font-bold text-sm"></span>
</div>
<div>
<p class="font-medium text-gray-800">下游:农产品贸易</p>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-600">宏辉果蔬(榴莲基地)、金健米业(柬埔寨大米)</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold text-gray-800 mb-3">核心玩家对比</h3>
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
<table class="min-w-full text-sm">
<thead>
<tr class="bg-gray-50">
<th class="py-2 px-3 text-left font-medium text-gray-700">公司</th>
<th class="py-2 px-3 text-left font-medium text-gray-700">关联逻辑</th>
<th class="py-2 px-3 text-left font-medium text-gray-700">风险点</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="border-b border-gray-100">
<td class="py-2 px-3 font-medium">通用股份</td>
<td class="py-2 px-3">柬埔寨二期产能350万条半钢胎</td>
<td class="py-2 px-3 text-red-600">达产延迟</td>
</tr>
<tr class="border-b border-gray-100">
<td class="py-2 px-3 font-medium">海南橡胶</td>
<td class="py-2 px-3">泰国+柬埔寨橡胶园353万亩</td>
<td class="py-2 px-3 text-red-600">运输成本上升20%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="py-2 px-3 font-medium">天和防务</td>
<td class="py-2 px-3">柬埔寨部署TH-S311防空系统</td>
<td class="py-2 px-3 text-yellow-600">订单真实性待核实</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!-- 关联股票表格 -->
<div class="card p-6 mb-8">
<div class="flex items-center mb-4">
<div class="w-10 h-10 rounded-full bg-yellow-500 flex items-center justify-center mr-3">
<i class="fas fa-chart-line text-white"></i>
</div>
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold gradient-text">关联股票分析</h2>
</div>
<div class="table-responsive">
<table class="min-w-full divide-y divide-gray-200">
<thead class="bg-gray-50">
<tr>
<th class="px-6 py-3 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">股票名称</th>
<th class="px-6 py-3 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">分类</th>
<th class="px-6 py-3 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">项目</th>
<th class="px-6 py-3 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">产业链</th>
<th class="px-6 py-3 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">关联原因</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody class="bg-white divide-y divide-gray-200">
<tr>
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-sm font-medium text-gray-900">宏辉果蔬</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-sm">
<span class="badge-category category-food">食品</span>
</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">榴莲基地</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">农产品进出口</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">公司榴莲基地位于马来西亚彭亨州,为正宗猫山王榴莲核心产地,从事水果、食品相关的进出口业务</td>
</tr>
<tr class="bg-gray-50">
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-sm font-medium text-gray-900">金健米业</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-sm">
<span class="badge-category category-food">食品</span>
</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">柬埔寨大米出口</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">农产品进出口</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">柬埔寨是世界主要大米出口国之一公司外贸业务占营业收入约4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-sm font-medium text-gray-900">神农种业</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-sm">
<span class="badge-category category-food">食品</span>
</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">水稻种子出口</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">农业种植</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">公司水稻种子出口孟加拉等东南亚国家,出口业务占比较小</td>
</tr>
<tr class="bg-gray-50">
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-sm font-medium text-gray-900">荃银高科</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-sm">
<span class="badge-category category-food">食品</span>
</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">种子出口</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">农业种植</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">公司种子出口业务位居全国第一位</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-sm font-medium text-gray-900">京粮控股</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-sm">
<span class="badge-category category-food">食品</span>
</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">一带一路合作</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">农产品贸易</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">以农产品进出口为切入点拓展与一带一路沿线国家合作</td>
</tr>
<tr class="bg-gray-50">
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-sm font-medium text-gray-900">中策橡胶</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-sm">
<span class="badge-category category-rubber">橡胶</span>
</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">泰国出口</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">橡胶制品</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">橡胶为泰国第一大出口品公司2024年对北美销售额65.77亿元,主要由泰国出口</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-sm font-medium text-gray-900">际华集团</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-sm">
<span class="badge-category category-rubber">橡胶</span>
</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">橡胶产能</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">橡胶制品</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">公司橡胶产品产能30000吨市场占有率超1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="bg-gray-50">
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-sm font-medium text-gray-900">海南橡胶</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-sm">
<span class="badge-category category-rubber">橡胶</span>
</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">天然橡胶生产</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">橡胶种植</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">中国最大天然橡胶生产企业胶林面积约353万亩年干胶产能21万吨</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-sm font-medium text-gray-900">北方稀土</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-sm">
<span class="badge-category category-rare-earth">稀土</span>
</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">稀土市占率</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">稀土开采</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">稀土市占率第一2024年采配额占比70%冶炼配额占比67%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="bg-gray-50">
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-sm font-medium text-gray-900">中国稀土</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-sm">
<span class="badge-category category-rare-earth">稀土</span>
</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">稀土市占率</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">稀土冶炼</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">稀土市占率第二主导南方离子型稀土市场2024年采配额占比约30%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-sm font-medium text-gray-900">厦门钨业</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-sm">
<span class="badge-category category-rare-earth">稀土</span>
</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">稀土合资公司</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">稀土冶炼</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">2023年与中国稀土集团成立合资公司2024年稀土氧化物及金属产量0.37万吨</td>
</tr>
<tr class="bg-gray-50">
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-sm font-medium text-gray-900">广晟有色</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-sm">
<span class="badge-category category-rare-earth">稀土</span>
</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">稀土资源</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">稀土开采</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">广东唯一稀土合法开采人控制中重稀土资源量超12万吨</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-sm font-medium text-gray-900">包钢股份</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-sm">
<span class="badge-category category-rare-earth">稀土</span>
</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">白云鄂博矿</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">稀土资源</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">控股股东包钢集团旗下白云鄂博矿为世界第一大稀土矿占国内储量81%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="bg-gray-50">
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-sm font-medium text-gray-900">盛和资源</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-sm">
<span class="badge-category category-rare-earth">稀土</span>
</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">海外稀土矿</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">稀土开采</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">包销海外稀土矿,拥有格陵兰岛科瓦内湾稀土矿探矿权</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-sm font-medium text-gray-900">*ST创兴</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-sm">
<span class="badge-category category-rare-earth">稀土</span>
</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">稀土开采</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">稀土投资</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">持股40%广西国兴稀土,拥有稀土开采、矿业权投资等业务</td>
</tr>
<tr class="bg-gray-50">
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-sm font-medium text-gray-900">天和防务</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-sm">
<span class="badge-category category-military">军工装备</span>
</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">TH-S311猎影系统</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">军工制造</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">柬埔寨配置有天和防务的TH-S311轮式防空作战指挥系统</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-sm font-medium text-gray-900">中航机载</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-sm">
<span class="badge-category category-military">军工装备</span>
</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">泰国座椅生产</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">军工制造</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">在泰国拥有Hapm Magna Seating System公司注册资本4200万元</td>
</tr>
<tr class="bg-gray-50">
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-sm font-medium text-gray-900">内蒙一机</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-sm">
<span class="badge-category category-military">军工装备</span>
</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">一带一路出口</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">军工制造</td>
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">结合一带一路国家战略,军贸向巴基斯坦、泰国等国家持续批量出口</td>
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</table>
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<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold text-gray-800 mb-3">关键跟踪指标</h3>
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<span class="text-indigo-600 mr-2">1.</span>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-600">8月4日边境会议结果决定停火持续性</p>
</div>
<div class="flex items-start">
<span class="text-indigo-600 mr-2">2.</span>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-600">通用股份柬埔寨二期投产进度(验证战争对产能的实际冲击)</p>
</div>
<div class="flex items-start">
<span class="text-indigo-600 mr-2">3.</span>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-600">泰国橡胶出口关税政策(若上调,将直接利好中国本土橡胶企业)</p>
</div>
</div>
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<p class="text-yellow-800 font-medium">风险提示</p>
<p class="text-yellow-700 text-sm">若停火协议超预期稳固,地缘溢价将迅速回吐,需警惕"事件驱动型"回撤</p>
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