751 lines
39 KiB
HTML
751 lines
39 KiB
HTML
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<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-CN">
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<head>
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<meta charset="UTF-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
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<title>钼金属概念分析 - 战略资源投资机遇</title>
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<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/bootstrap@5.3.0/dist/css/bootstrap.min.css" rel="stylesheet">
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<link rel="stylesheet" href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/bootstrap-icons@1.10.0/font/bootstrap-icons.css">
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<style>
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:root {
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--primary-color: #2c3e50;
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--secondary-color: #3498db;
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--accent-color: #e74c3c;
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--light-bg: #f8f9fa;
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--dark-text: #2c3e50;
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}
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body {
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font-family: 'Microsoft YaHei', 'Segoe UI', Tahoma, Geneva, Verdana, sans-serif;
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color: var(--dark-text);
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background-color: #f5f7fa;
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}
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.hero-section {
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background: linear-gradient(135deg, var(--primary-color) 0%, var(--secondary-color) 100%);
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color: white;
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padding: 3rem 0;
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margin-bottom: 2rem;
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border-radius: 0 0 20px 20px;
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}
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.section-card {
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background: white;
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border-radius: 10px;
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box-shadow: 0 4px 12px rgba(0,0,0,0.08);
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padding: 2rem;
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margin-bottom: 2rem;
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transition: transform 0.3s ease;
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}
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.section-card:hover {
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transform: translateY(-5px);
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}
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.section-title {
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color: var(--primary-color);
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border-bottom: 2px solid var(--secondary-color);
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padding-bottom: 0.5rem;
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margin-bottom: 1.5rem;
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font-weight: 600;
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}
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.timeline {
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position: relative;
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padding-left: 2rem;
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}
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.timeline::before {
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content: '';
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position: absolute;
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left: 0;
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top: 0;
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height: 100%;
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width: 3px;
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background: var(--secondary-color);
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}
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.timeline-item {
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position: relative;
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margin-bottom: 1.5rem;
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}
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.timeline-item::before {
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content: '';
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position: absolute;
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left: -2.3rem;
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top: 0.3rem;
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width: 12px;
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height: 12px;
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border-radius: 50%;
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background: var(--secondary-color);
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border: 2px solid white;
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}
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.timeline-year {
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font-weight: bold;
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color: var(--secondary-color);
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margin-bottom: 0.5rem;
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}
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.highlight-box {
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background-color: rgba(52, 152, 219, 0.1);
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border-left: 4px solid var(--secondary-color);
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padding: 1rem;
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margin: 1rem 0;
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}
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.stock-table {
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width: 100%;
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border-collapse: collapse;
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}
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.stock-table th {
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background-color: var(--primary-color);
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color: white;
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padding: 0.75rem;
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text-align: left;
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}
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.stock-table td {
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padding: 0.75rem;
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border-bottom: 1px solid #e0e0e0;
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}
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.stock-table tr:nth-child(even) {
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background-color: var(--light-bg);
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}
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.stock-table tr:hover {
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background-color: rgba(52, 152, 219, 0.1);
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}
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.key-point {
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display: inline-block;
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background-color: var(--accent-color);
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color: white;
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padding: 0.2rem 0.5rem;
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border-radius: 4px;
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font-weight: bold;
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margin: 0.2rem;
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}
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.company-logo {
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width: 40px;
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height: 40px;
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background-color: var(--secondary-color);
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border-radius: 50%;
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display: flex;
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align-items: center;
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justify-content: center;
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color: white;
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font-weight: bold;
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margin-right: 10px;
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}
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.company-card {
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display: flex;
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align-items: center;
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padding: 1rem;
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border: 1px solid #e0e0e0;
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border-radius: 8px;
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margin-bottom: 1rem;
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transition: all 0.3s ease;
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}
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.company-card:hover {
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box-shadow: 0 4px 8px rgba(0,0,0,0.1);
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border-color: var(--secondary-color);
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}
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.risk-item {
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display: flex;
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margin-bottom: 1rem;
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}
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.risk-icon {
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color: var(--accent-color);
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margin-right: 1rem;
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font-size: 1.5rem;
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}
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.conclusion-box {
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background: linear-gradient(135deg, rgba(44, 62, 80, 0.05) 0%, rgba(52, 152, 219, 0.1) 100%);
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border-radius: 10px;
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padding: 1.5rem;
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margin-top: 1rem;
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}
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@media (max-width: 768px) {
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.hero-section {
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padding: 2rem 0;
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}
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.section-card {
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padding: 1.5rem;
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}
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.stock-table {
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font-size: 0.9rem;
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}
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.stock-table th, .stock-table td {
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padding: 0.5rem;
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}
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}
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</style>
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</head>
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<body>
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<!-- Hero Section -->
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<div class="hero-section">
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<div class="container">
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<div class="row align-items-center">
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<div class="col-md-8">
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<h1 class="display-4 fw-bold">钼金属概念分析</h1>
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<p class="lead">战略资源投资机遇 | 供需格局重塑 | 价值重估</p>
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</div>
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<div class="col-md-4 text-end">
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<div class="d-flex align-items-center justify-content-end">
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<i class="bi bi-graph-up-arrow display-4 me-3"></i>
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<div>
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<h3 class="mb-0">战略金属</h3>
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<p>长期景气上行</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="container">
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<!-- 概念事件时间轴 -->
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<div class="section-card">
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<h2 class="section-title"><i class="bi bi-clock-history me-2"></i>概念事件时间轴</h2>
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<div class="timeline">
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<div class="timeline-year">2022年</div>
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<ul>
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<li>10月:钼价开始明显快速上涨,突破3000元/吨</li>
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<li>11月1日:钼价突破3000元/吨重要关口</li>
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<li>年底:钼价达到5500元/吨高位</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<div class="timeline-year">2023年</div>
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<ul>
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<li>2月:金钼股份和洛阳钼业分别召开路演,详细介绍钼金属行业情况</li>
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<li>8月:钼价从春节后的5600元/吨跌至2600元/吨后,又回升至4300元/吨以上</li>
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<li>8月:金钼股份发布中报,上半年业绩达14.93亿元,超过2022年全年</li>
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<li>10月:洛阳钼业发布24Q1-3业绩,实现归母83亿元,同比+239%</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<div class="timeline-year">2024年</div>
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<ul>
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<li>4月:金钼股份2023年度分红预案32.9亿元,每股分红0.4元</li>
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<li>4月:洛阳钼业发布25Q1业绩,实现归母39亿元,同增90%</li>
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<li>4月:金钼股份2024年一季度净利润6.33亿元,同比有所下降</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<div class="timeline-year">2025年</div>
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<ul>
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<li>1月:洛阳钼业公告2024年钼金属产量1.5万吨,同比-2%</li>
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<li>3月:洛阳钼业发布2024年报,实现归母135亿元,同比+64%</li>
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<li>4月:洛阳钼业拟5.81亿加元收购Lumina Gold,拓展贵金属领域</li>
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<li>6月:中信建投研报称钼钨价格持续上涨,重视战略金属投资机遇</li>
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<li>7月:洛阳钼业发布半年度业绩预告,预计Q2实现归母净利润43-52亿元,环比增长8%-31%</li>
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<li>7月:国金金属再推钼,目标价5000元/吨度,提到中国黄金集团内蒙古矿业有限公司发生重大事故</li>
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<li>9月:机构研究称25Q2有色或开启趋势性普涨周期</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 核心观点摘要 -->
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<div class="section-card">
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<h2 class="section-title"><i class="bi bi-lightbulb me-2"></i>核心观点摘要</h2>
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<div class="highlight-box">
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<p class="mb-0">钼金属正处于供需格局重塑的战略机遇期,供应端扰动与需求端结构性增长共同推动价格中枢上移。随着新能源、高端制造等新兴领域对钼的需求持续增长,叠加资源稀缺性日益凸显,钼金属行业已从周期底部步入长期景气上行通道,具备显著的投资价值和战略意义。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="row mt-4">
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<div class="col-md-4 mb-3">
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<div class="card h-100 border-primary">
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<div class="card-body">
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<h5 class="card-title text-primary">供需格局重塑</h5>
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<p class="card-text">供应端扰动持续,需求端结构性增长,供需缺口将逐步扩大</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="col-md-4 mb-3">
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<div class="card h-100 border-success">
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<div class="card-body">
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<h5 class="card-title text-success">价格中枢上移</h5>
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<p class="card-text">钼价已从历史底部区域回升,国金证券目标价达5000元/吨度</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="col-md-4 mb-3">
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<div class="card h-100 border-danger">
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<div class="card-body">
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<h5 class="card-title text-danger">战略价值提升</h5>
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<p class="card-text">关键矿产资源已成为各国博弈的新'战场',战略价值凸显</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 概念的核心逻辑与市场认知分析 -->
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<div class="section-card">
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<h2 class="section-title"><i class="bi bi-diagram-3 me-2"></i>概念的核心逻辑与市场认知分析</h2>
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<h4 class="mt-4 mb-3">核心驱动力</h4>
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<div class="row">
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<div class="col-md-6 mb-4">
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<h5><i class="bi bi-arrow-up-circle text-primary me-2"></i>供需格局重塑</h5>
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<p>全球钼矿资源集中,主要分布在中国、美国和南美洲。钼矿投资周期长,一般需要<span class="key-point">3-5年</span>才能有产能释放。2022年下半年钼价上涨后,行业投资才开始启动,这意味着2023-2025年钼供应增量有限。</p>
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<p>从需求端看,钼的应用领域不断拓展。传统上,钼主要用于钢铁添加剂,提高钢材的耐高温性和强度。特别值得注意的是,<span class="key-point">316不锈钢对304不锈钢的替代</span>成为主要需求增长趋势。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="col-md-6 mb-4">
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<h5><i class="bi bi-gem text-success me-2"></i>资源稀缺性凸显</h5>
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<p>钼作为稀有金属,其资源稀缺性日益凸显。全球钼储量约<span class="key-point">1500万吨</span>,美国占1/3,在产矿储量约900万吨。以目前<span class="key-point">30万吨/年</span>产量计算,900万吨在产矿储量可保供30年。同时,"2028年后钼需求预计将达<span class="key-point">33万吨以上</span>",这意味着长期来看,钼资源将面临供需缺口。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<h4 class="mt-4 mb-3">市场热度与情绪</h4>
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<p>从新闻和研报的发布频率来看,市场对钼金属的关注度在2022年底至2023年初显著提升,这与钼价快速上涨的时间点相吻合。2025年,随着钼价再次上涨,市场关注度再次提升。</p>
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<p>从情绪来看,市场对钼金属的态度总体偏乐观。国金证券在2025年7月24日的研报中直接给出钼价目标价<span class="key-point">5000元/吨度</span>,并称其为"供应扰动+反内卷受益品种"。中信建投在2025年6月4日的研报中也表示"持续看好国内优势战略矿种价值回归及股票估值重估"。</p>
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<h4 class="mt-4 mb-3">预期差分析</h4>
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<div class="accordion" id="expectationAccordion">
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<div class="accordion-item">
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<h2 class="accordion-header" id="headingOne">
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<button class="accordion-button" type="button" data-bs-toggle="collapse" data-bs-target="#collapseOne" aria-expanded="true" aria-controls="collapseOne">
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供应释放速度低于预期
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</button>
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</h2>
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<div id="collapseOne" class="accordion-collapse collapse show" aria-labelledby="headingOne" data-bs-parent="#expectationAccordion">
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<div class="accordion-body">
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虽然市场预期钼价高企会刺激产能扩张,但实际供应释放速度低于预期。金钼股份在2024年4月的路演中提到,"目前市场上未见大型单体钼矿投入运营,增量主要来自铜矿伴生","新矿山投产涉及项目审批、技术及下游配套等多方面问题,周期较长"。
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="accordion-item">
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<h2 class="accordion-header" id="headingTwo">
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<button class="accordion-button collapsed" type="button" data-bs-toggle="collapse" data-bs-target="#collapseTwo" aria-expanded="false" aria-controls="collapseTwo">
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需求增长超预期
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</button>
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</h2>
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<div id="collapseTwo" class="accordion-collapse collapse" aria-labelledby="headingTwo" data-bs-parent="#expectationAccordion">
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<div class="accordion-body">
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市场可能低估了钼需求的增长潜力。金钼股份在2024年4月的路演中提到,"今年一季度不锈钢增速约<span class="key-point">7%</span>,需求比预期更好","预计2028年需求将达33万吨以上"。这表明钼需求增长可能比市场预期更为强劲。
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="accordion-item">
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<h2 class="accordion-header" id="headingThree">
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<button class="accordion-button collapsed" type="button" data-bs-toggle="collapse" data-bs-target="#collapseThree" aria-expanded="false" aria-controls="collapseThree">
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成本支撑强于预期
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</button>
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</h2>
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<div id="collapseThree" class="accordion-collapse collapse" aria-labelledby="headingThree" data-bs-parent="#expectationAccordion">
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<div class="accordion-body">
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市场可能低估了钼矿开采成本的上升压力。金钼股份在2024年4月的路演中提到,"能源价格、人工成本及环保要求提升推高国内矿山成本","随着价格上涨,国内矿山可能优先开采高品位矿石,后期低品位矿山减产情况可能出现"。这意味着钼价可能获得比预期更强的成本支撑。
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 关键催化剂与未来发展路径 -->
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<div class="section-card">
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<h2 class="section-title"><i class="bi bi-rocket-takeoff me-2"></i>关键催化剂与未来发展路径</h2>
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<h4 class="mt-4 mb-3">近期催化剂</h4>
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<div class="row">
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<div class="col-md-6 mb-3">
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<div class="d-flex align-items-start">
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<i class="bi bi-exclamation-triangle text-warning me-3 mt-1" style="font-size: 1.5rem;"></i>
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<div>
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<h5>供应扰动持续</h5>
|
||
<p>2025年7月国金金属研报提到中国黄金集团内蒙古矿业有限公司发生重大事故,该企业钼产量<span class="key-point">6000多吨</span>,单体体量较大。同时,"柬埔寨和泰国发生边境冲突,中国是柬埔寨钼矿的重要进口国",可能进一步加剧供应扰动。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="col-md-6 mb-3">
|
||
<div class="d-flex align-items-start">
|
||
<i class="bi bi-arrow-repeat text-info me-3 mt-1" style="font-size: 1.5rem;"></i>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h5>钢厂补库周期</h5>
|
||
<p>金钼股份在2024年4月的路演中提到,"3月份以来,钢厂补库周期可能到来,为钼价上升提供有利基础"。随着下游需求恢复,钢厂补库可能成为推动钼价上涨的重要因素。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<h4 class="mt-4 mb-3">长期发展路径</h4>
|
||
<div class="row">
|
||
<div class="col-md-3 mb-3">
|
||
<div class="card text-center h-100">
|
||
<div class="card-header bg-primary text-white">
|
||
2023-2025年
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="card-body">
|
||
<h5 class="card-title">价格中枢上移阶段</h5>
|
||
<p class="card-text">供需格局重塑推动钼价中枢上移,国金证券目标价已达5000元/吨度</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="col-md-3 mb-3">
|
||
<div class="card text-center h-100">
|
||
<div class="card-header bg-success text-white">
|
||
2025-2027年
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="card-body">
|
||
<h5 class="card-title">产能扩张阶段</h5>
|
||
<p class="card-text">行业投资增加,新产能逐步释放,预计有<span class="key-point">3-4万吨</span>的钼供给增量</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="col-md-3 mb-3">
|
||
<div class="card text-center h-100">
|
||
<div class="card-header bg-warning text-dark">
|
||
2027-2030年
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="card-body">
|
||
<h5 class="card-title">需求结构优化阶段</h5>
|
||
<p class="card-text">新能源、高端制造等新兴领域发展,预计2028年需求将达<span class="key-point">33万吨以上</span></p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="col-md-3 mb-3">
|
||
<div class="card text-center h-100">
|
||
<div class="card-header bg-danger text-white">
|
||
2030年以后
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="card-body">
|
||
<h5 class="card-title">战略价值重估阶段</h5>
|
||
<p class="card-text">资源稀缺性日益凸显,钼成为各国争夺的战略资源</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 产业链与核心公司深度剖析 -->
|
||
<div class="section-card">
|
||
<h2 class="section-title"><i class="bi bi-building me-2"></i>产业链与核心公司深度剖析</h2>
|
||
|
||
<h4 class="mt-4 mb-3">产业链图谱</h4>
|
||
<div class="row">
|
||
<div class="col-md-4 mb-3">
|
||
<div class="card h-100 border-primary">
|
||
<div class="card-header bg-primary text-white">
|
||
<i class="bi bi-minecart me-2"></i>上游(资源开采)
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="card-body">
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li>钼矿开采:金钼股份、紫金矿业、洛阳钼业、中国中铁、兖矿能源</li>
|
||
<li>伴生钼回收:铜矿伴生钼的回收,如洛阳钼业的铜钴矿</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="col-md-4 mb-3">
|
||
<div class="card h-100 border-success">
|
||
<div class="card-header bg-success text-white">
|
||
<i class="bi bi-gear me-2"></i>中游(冶炼加工)
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="card-body">
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li>钼精矿冶炼:金钼股份等</li>
|
||
<li>钼化工产品生产:钼酸铵、钼酸钠等</li>
|
||
<li>钼金属制品:钼铁、钼粉、钼条等</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="col-md-4 mb-3">
|
||
<div class="card h-100 border-danger">
|
||
<div class="card-header bg-danger text-white">
|
||
<i class="bi bi-lightning-charge me-2"></i>下游(应用领域)
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="card-body">
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li>钢铁行业:不锈钢、特种钢等(占比最大)</li>
|
||
<li>化工行业:石油脱硫催化剂、润滑剂、化肥原料等</li>
|
||
<li>新能源领域:新能源汽车相关零部件、风电光伏材料等</li>
|
||
<li>高端制造:军工、航空航天高温合金等</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<h4 class="mt-4 mb-3">核心玩家对比</h4>
|
||
<div class="company-card">
|
||
<div class="company-logo">金</div>
|
||
<div class="flex-grow-1">
|
||
<h5>金钼股份 <span class="badge bg-primary">领导者</span></h5>
|
||
<p class="mb-1"><strong>竞争优势:</strong>国内唯一的纯钼上市公司,产能国内最大,总产能为<span class="key-point">2.2万-2.3万吨</span>。拥有金堆城钼矿和汝阳东沟钼矿两大优质资源,资源自给率高。资产负债率仅约<span class="key-point">12%</span>,财务成本低。</p>
|
||
<p class="mb-0"><strong>业务进展:</strong>正在进行采选技改,完成后预计每年综合成本降低<span class="key-point">3-4亿元</span>。2023年业绩达31亿元,第四季度业绩为7.6亿元。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="company-card">
|
||
<div class="company-logo">洛</div>
|
||
<div class="flex-grow-1">
|
||
<h5>洛阳钼业 <span class="badge bg-success">追赶者</span></h5>
|
||
<p class="mb-1"><strong>竞争优势:</strong>全球重要的铜钴生产商,同时拥有钼金属资源量<span class="key-point">84.03万吨</span>。业务多元化,抗风险能力强。2024年实现归母<span class="key-point">135亿元</span>,同比+64%,业绩增长强劲。</p>
|
||
<p class="mb-0"><strong>业务进展:</strong>2025年Q1实现归母39亿元,同增90%;Q2预计实现归母净利润43-52亿元,环比增长8%-31%。拟5.81亿加元收购Lumina Gold,拓展贵金属领域。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="company-card">
|
||
<div class="company-logo">紫</div>
|
||
<div class="flex-grow-1">
|
||
<h5>紫金矿业 <span class="badge bg-warning text-dark">追赶者</span></h5>
|
||
<p class="mb-1"><strong>竞争优势:</strong>持有沙坪沟钼矿60%股权,该矿保有钼金属资源量<span class="key-point">210万吨</span>(含储量),是国内重要的钼矿资源。作为国内矿业龙头,拥有丰富的矿山开发和管理经验。</p>
|
||
<p class="mb-0"><strong>业务进展:</strong>沙坪沟钼矿开发进度是市场关注的焦点,如果顺利投产,将显著提升公司钼产量。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 潜在风险与挑战 -->
|
||
<div class="section-card">
|
||
<h2 class="section-title"><i class="bi bi-shield-exclamation me-2"></i>潜在风险与挑战</h2>
|
||
|
||
<h4 class="mt-4 mb-3">技术风险</h4>
|
||
<div class="risk-item">
|
||
<div class="risk-icon">
|
||
<i class="bi bi-cpu"></i>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<p>钼金属行业面临的技术风险相对较小,因为钼的开采和冶炼技术已经相当成熟。然而,金钼股份正在研发钼矿中共生铼元素的回收技术,"铼元素主要应用于航空航天高温合金领域"。这一技术的研发进展存在不确定性,如果研发成功,将为公司带来明显利润贡献,但如果研发失败或进度不及预期,可能影响公司的长期竞争力。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<h4 class="mt-4 mb-3">商业化风险</h4>
|
||
<div class="risk-item">
|
||
<div class="risk-icon">
|
||
<i class="bi bi-currency-exchange"></i>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<p><strong>价格波动风险:</strong>钼价格历史上波动较大,金钼股份提到,"2022年二季度钼价曾达到5600元/吨高点,2023年二季度钼价跌至2600元/吨,目前钼价回升至4300元/吨并继续上涨"。价格的大幅波动可能影响企业的盈利稳定性。</p>
|
||
<p><strong>成本上升风险:</strong>金钼股份提到,"能源价格、人工成本及环保要求提升推高国内矿山成本","随着价格上涨,国内矿山可能优先开采高品位矿石,后期低品位矿山减产情况可能出现"。成本上升可能压缩企业利润空间。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<h4 class="mt-4 mb-3">政策与竞争风险</h4>
|
||
<div class="risk-item">
|
||
<div class="risk-icon">
|
||
<i class="bi bi-balance-scale"></i>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<p><strong>环保政策风险:</strong>金钼股份提到,"新钼矿投产面临困难:林地审批严格(受双碳政策影响),尾矿库建设需要大量土地且环保要求高"。日益严格的环保政策可能限制钼矿的扩张。</p>
|
||
<p><strong>国际贸易政策风险:</strong>2025年7月国金金属研报提到"柬埔寨和泰国发生边境冲突,中国是柬埔寨钼矿的重要进口国"。国际贸易摩擦和地缘政治风险可能影响钼的供应链。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 综合结论与投资启示 -->
|
||
<div class="section-card">
|
||
<h2 class="section-title"><i class="bi bi-clipboard-check me-2"></i>综合结论与投资启示</h2>
|
||
|
||
<h4 class="mt-4 mb-3">综合结论</h4>
|
||
<div class="conclusion-box">
|
||
<p>钼金属概念已经从主题炒作阶段进入基本面驱动阶段。支撑这一判断的核心依据包括:</p>
|
||
<ol>
|
||
<li><strong>供需格局改善:</strong>供应端扰动持续,需求端结构性增长,供需格局已显著改善。金钼股份提到,"目前年产量24万吨,需求量24万吨,预计2028年需求将达33万吨以上",供需缺口将逐步扩大。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>价格中枢上移:</strong>钼价已从历史底部区域回升,并有望维持在较高水平。国金证券给出的目标价已达5000元/吨度,远高于历史低位。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>企业业绩改善:</strong>相关企业业绩已显著改善。金钼股份2023年业绩达31亿元,洛阳钼业2024年实现归母135亿元,同比+64%。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>战略价值提升:</strong>钼作为战略金属的重要性日益提升。中信建投指出,"关键矿产资源已成为各国博弈的新'战场'"。</li>
|
||
</ol>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<h4 class="mt-4 mb-3">投资启示</h4>
|
||
<div class="row">
|
||
<div class="col-md-4 mb-3">
|
||
<div class="card h-100 border-primary">
|
||
<div class="card-body">
|
||
<h5 class="card-title text-primary">纯钼生产企业</h5>
|
||
<p class="card-text">金钼股份作为国内唯一的纯钼上市公司,逻辑最为纯粹,直接受益于钼价上涨。公司拥有两大优质矿山,成本控制能力强,业绩弹性大。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="col-md-4 mb-3">
|
||
<div class="card h-100 border-success">
|
||
<div class="card-body">
|
||
<h5 class="card-title text-success">资源禀赋优异的企业</h5>
|
||
<p class="card-text">拥有优质钼资源的企业将长期受益于钼价上涨。紫金矿业的沙坪沟钼矿(保有钼金属资源量210万吨)和洛阳钼业的钼资源(钼金属资源量84.03万吨)都具有较强的竞争力。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="col-md-4 mb-3">
|
||
<div class="card h-100 border-danger">
|
||
<div class="card-body">
|
||
<h5 class="card-title text-danger">技术领先的企业</h5>
|
||
<p class="card-text">在钼深加工和稀有元素回收方面具有技术优势的企业,如金钼股份正在研发的钼矿中共生铼元素的回收技术,一旦成功,将为公司带来明显利润贡献。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<h4 class="mt-4 mb-3">需要重点跟踪和验证的关键指标</h4>
|
||
<div class="row">
|
||
<div class="col-md-6 mb-3">
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>钼价走势:</strong>钼价是影响企业业绩的最直接因素,特别关注国金证券提到的5000元/吨度目标价能否实现。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>供应扰动情况:</strong>关注中国黄金集团内蒙古矿业有限公司事故的后续影响,以及柬埔寨和泰国边境冲突对中国钼进口的影响。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>下游需求变化:</strong>特别关注不锈钢增速、新能源领域需求增长等关键指标。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="col-md-6 mb-3">
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>新项目进展:</strong>关注沙坪沟钼矿、巨龙二期等重要项目的开发进度,这些项目的投产将显著影响未来供应格局。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>企业业绩:</strong>关注金钼股份、洛阳钼业等核心企业的季度业绩表现,验证钼价上涨对企业业绩的实际影响。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>库存水平:</strong>关注产业链库存变化,库存变化可能预示价格走势。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 相关股票数据表格 -->
|
||
<div class="section-card">
|
||
<h2 class="section-title"><i class="bi bi-table me-2"></i>相关股票数据</h2>
|
||
<div class="table-responsive">
|
||
<table class="stock-table">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>项目/资源</th>
|
||
<th>资源量/产能</th>
|
||
<th>持股比例/计划时间</th>
|
||
<th>信息来源</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>金钼股份</td>
|
||
<td>金堆城钼矿+汝阳东沟钼矿</td>
|
||
<td>钼矿石资源量合计约8.88亿吨</td>
|
||
<td>34%</td>
|
||
<td>公告</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>金钼股份</td>
|
||
<td>沙坪钼矿</td>
|
||
<td>保有钼金属资源量210万吨(含储量)</td>
|
||
<td>-</td>
|
||
<td>公告</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>紫金矿业</td>
|
||
<td>沙坪沟钼矿</td>
|
||
<td>保有钼金属资源量210万吨(含储量)</td>
|
||
<td>60%</td>
|
||
<td>公告</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>洛阳钼业</td>
|
||
<td>钼金属资源</td>
|
||
<td>钼金属资源量84.03万吨</td>
|
||
<td>-</td>
|
||
<td>公告</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>中国中铁</td>
|
||
<td>黑龙江伊春鹿鸣钼矿</td>
|
||
<td>保有资源量/储量59.57万吨</td>
|
||
<td>-</td>
|
||
<td>半年报</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>兖矿能源</td>
|
||
<td>曹四天钼矿</td>
|
||
<td>矿石资源量达10.4亿吨</td>
|
||
<td>2025年底或2026年开工建设</td>
|
||
<td>半年报</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>永冠锂业</td>
|
||
<td>铝产品产能</td>
|
||
<td>铝产品产能位居国内第一方阵</td>
|
||
<td>2025年上半年铝产品营收占比74%</td>
|
||
<td>公告</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<footer class="bg-dark text-white py-4 mt-5">
|
||
<div class="container">
|
||
<div class="row">
|
||
<div class="col-md-6">
|
||
<h5>钼金属概念分析</h5>
|
||
<p>战略资源投资机遇 | 供需格局重塑 | 价值重估</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="col-md-6 text-md-end">
|
||
<p class="mb-0">数据来源:公开资料整理 | 更新时间:2025年</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
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||
</footer>
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<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/bootstrap@5.3.0/dist/js/bootstrap.bundle.min.js"></script>
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// 添加表格排序功能
|
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document.querySelectorAll('.stock-table th').forEach(headerCell => {
|
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headerCell.addEventListener('click', () => {
|
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const tableElement = headerCell.parentElement.parentElement.parentElement;
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const headerIndex = Array.prototype.indexOf.call(headerCell.parentElement.children, headerCell);
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// Re-add the newly sorted rows
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tBody.append(...sortedRows);
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// Remember how the column is currently sorted
|
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table.querySelectorAll("th").forEach(th => th.classList.remove("th-sort-asc", "th-sort-desc"));
|
||
table.querySelector(`th:nth-child(${ column + 1})`).classList.toggle("th-sort-asc", asc);
|
||
table.querySelector(`th:nth-child(${ column + 1})`).classList.toggle("th-sort-desc", !asc);
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