578 lines
24 KiB
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578 lines
24 KiB
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<div id="particles-js"></div>
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<div class="container mx-auto px-4 py-8 max-w-6xl">
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<!-- Header Section -->
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<div class="text-center mb-12">
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<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-5xl font-bold mb-4 bg-gradient-to-r from-blue-400 to-cyan-300 bg-clip-text text-transparent">
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阶跃星辰概念分析报告
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</h1>
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<p class="text-lg text-slate-300 max-w-3xl mx-auto">
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深度解析国产大模型新势力阶跃星辰的技术突破、商业模式与投资价值
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</p>
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</div>
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<!-- Concept Event Section -->
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<div class="card rounded-xl p-6 mb-8">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-6 text-blue-300 flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-calendar-alt mr-3"></i>概念事件与时间轴
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</h2>
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<div class="mb-6">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-3 text-cyan-200">背景与催化事件</h3>
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<p class="text-slate-300 mb-4">
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阶跃星辰（StepStar）成立于2023年4月，由前微软全球副总裁姜大昕博士创立，定位为通用大模型新势力。2024年3月23日，公司在全球开发者先锋大会上发布<span class="highlight">Step-2万亿参数MoE语言大模型预览版</span>，并同步推出C端产品"跃问"和"冒泡鸭"，标志着国产大模型首次在参数规模上对标GPT-4。2025年7月25日，公司宣布与上海国投达成战略合作，<span class="highlight">新一轮融资超5亿美元</span>（或为2025年AI领域最大单轮融资），并发布<span class="highlight">Step-3多模态大模型</span>，计划7月31日开源。
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</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-4 text-cyan-200">发展时间轴</h3>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
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<div>
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-blue-200">2023年4月</h4>
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<p class="text-slate-300">公司成立，核心团队来自微软/谷歌</p>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-blue-200">2024年3月</h4>
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<p class="text-slate-300">发布Step-1（千亿参数）、Step-1V（多模态）、Step-2（万亿MoE）</p>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-blue-200">2024年7月</h4>
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<p class="text-slate-300">WAIC 2024发布Step-2正式版，性能逼近GPT-4</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div>
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-blue-200">2025年2月</h4>
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<p class="text-slate-300">开源Step-Video-T2V（300亿参数视频生成模型）和Step-Audio（语音交互模型）</p>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-blue-200">2025年7月</h4>
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<p class="text-slate-300">与上海国投合作，融资5亿美元，发布Step-3并冲刺<span class="highlight">年收入10亿元</span></p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Core Viewpoints Section -->
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<div class="card rounded-xl p-6 mb-8">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-6 text-blue-300 flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-lightbulb mr-3"></i>核心观点摘要
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</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
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<div class="bg-slate-800 bg-opacity-50 p-5 rounded-lg">
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<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold mb-3 text-cyan-200">阶段判断</h3>
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<p class="text-slate-300">
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阶跃星辰已从"技术验证"进入"商业化落地"阶段，<span class="highlight">开源+生态合作</span>策略加速其成为国产大模型第一梯队。
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</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-slate-800 bg-opacity-50 p-5 rounded-lg">
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<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold mb-3 text-cyan-200">核心驱动力</h3>
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<p class="text-slate-300">
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<span class="highlight">万亿MoE架构的技术突破</span>（Step-2/3）+ <span class="highlight">国资背景融资</span>（上海国投）+ <span class="highlight">垂直场景绑定</span>（金融、网络文学、智能终端）。
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</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-slate-800 bg-opacity-50 p-5 rounded-lg">
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<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold mb-3 text-cyan-200">未来潜力</h3>
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<p class="text-slate-300">
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若Step-3开源后生态爆发，可能复制Meta的Llama路径，成为国产AGI基础设施核心供应商。
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</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Core Logic Section -->
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<div class="card rounded-xl p-6 mb-8">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-6 text-blue-300 flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-cogs mr-3"></i>核心逻辑与市场认知分析
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</h2>
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<div class="mb-6">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-4 text-cyan-200">核心驱动力</h3>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-blue-200 mb-2">技术突破</h4>
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<p class="text-slate-300">
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Step-2采用MoE架构，<span class="highlight">训练效率提升300%</span>（vs. DeepSeek R1），Step-1V在OpenCompass多模态评测中<span class="highlight">超越GPT-4V</span>（2024年3月数据）。
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</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-blue-200 mb-2">政策与资本</h4>
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<p class="text-slate-300">
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上海国投注资5亿美元，体现<span class="highlight">地方政府对国产算力/模型的战略扶持</span>（类似北京对智谱AI的支持）。
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</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="mt-4">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-blue-200 mb-2">场景绑定</h4>
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<ul class="list-disc pl-6 text-slate-300 space-y-2">
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<li><span class="font-medium">金融领域</span>：与财联社合作"财跃F1"金融大模型，覆盖智能投顾/风控。</li>
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<li><span class="font-medium">内容领域</span>：与中文在线独家合作，<span class="highlight">550万种IP资源</span>用于模型训练，探索AI生成小说/漫画。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="mb-6">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-4 text-cyan-200">市场热度与情绪</h3>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-blue-200 mb-2">研报密集度</h4>
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<p class="text-slate-300">
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2024年3-7月，<span class="highlight">超15篇头部券商研报</span>覆盖（东吴、招商、天风等），关键词从"技术对标GPT-4"转向"开源生态"。
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</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-blue-200 mb-2">情绪分化</h4>
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<p class="text-slate-300">
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乐观派（如东吴）认为其<span class="highlight">多模态+开源</span>可颠覆应用层；谨慎派（华福路演）指出<span class="highlight">工程化能力弱于Kimi</span>（如"跃问"网页总结缺乏结构化输出）。
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</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-4 text-cyan-200">预期差分析</h3>
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<ul class="list-disc pl-6 text-slate-300 space-y-2">
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<li><span class="font-medium">算力成本</span>：Step-2需<span class="highlight">万卡A100集群</span>（自建+租用），但上海智能算力合资公司（持股10%）或降低长期成本。</li>
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<li><span class="font-medium">商业化节奏</span>：2025年收入目标10亿元，但当前<span class="highlight">C端产品"冒泡鸭"月活未披露</span>，B端金融模型落地进度存疑。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Catalysts Section -->
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<div class="card rounded-xl p-6 mb-8">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-6 text-blue-300 flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-rocket mr-3"></i>关键催化剂与未来发展路径
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</h2>
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<div class="mb-6">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-4 text-cyan-200">近期催化剂（3-6个月）</h3>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
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<div class="bg-slate-800 bg-opacity-50 p-5 rounded-lg">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-blue-200 mb-2">Step-3开源</h4>
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<p class="text-slate-300">
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2025年7月31日：若性能验证接近GPT-4o，可能引发开发者迁移潮。
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</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-slate-800 bg-opacity-50 p-5 rounded-lg">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-blue-200 mb-2">上海国投生态合作</h4>
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<p class="text-slate-300">
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旗下企业（如云赛智联）或批量接入阶跃模型，形成<span class="highlight">"上海国资云+阶跃大模型"</span>标杆案例。
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</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-4 text-cyan-200">长期路径</h3>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
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<div class="bg-slate-800 bg-opacity-50 p-5 rounded-lg">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-blue-200 mb-2">2025-2026年</h4>
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<p class="text-slate-300">
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从"模型供应商"升级为"Agent生态平台"，通过"繁星计划"孵化<span class="highlight">智能终端Agent</span>（已绑定吉利、OPPO、智元机器人）。
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</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-slate-800 bg-opacity-50 p-5 rounded-lg">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-blue-200 mb-2">2027年后</h4>
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<p class="text-slate-300">
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若多模态生成（视频/3D）突破，可能切入<span class="highlight">影视/游戏内容工业化生产</span>（类似Sora对好莱坞的影响）。
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</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Industry Chain Section -->
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<div class="card rounded-xl p-6 mb-8">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-6 text-blue-300 flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-project-diagram mr-3"></i>产业链与核心公司深度剖析
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</h2>
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<div class="mb-6">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-4 text-cyan-200">产业链图谱</h3>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-4">
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<div class="bg-slate-800 bg-opacity-50 p-4 rounded-lg text-center">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-blue-200 mb-2">上游</h4>
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<p class="text-slate-300">算力（云赛智联、上海仪电）、数据（中文在线、中国知网）</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-slate-800 bg-opacity-50 p-4 rounded-lg text-center">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-blue-200 mb-2">中游</h4>
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<p class="text-slate-300">模型（阶跃星辰）、开源框架（魔乐社区适配昇腾）</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-slate-800 bg-opacity-50 p-4 rounded-lg text-center">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-blue-200 mb-2">下游</h4>
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<p class="text-slate-300">应用（吉利汽车智能座舱、OPPO手机助手、新华传媒数字人）</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-4 text-cyan-200">核心玩家对比</h3>
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<div class="overflow-x-auto">
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<table class="min-w-full bg-slate-800 bg-opacity-50 rounded-lg">
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<thead>
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<tr class="border-b border-slate-700">
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<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left text-blue-200 font-semibold">公司</th>
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<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left text-blue-200 font-semibold">关联逻辑</th>
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<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left text-blue-200 font-semibold">竞争优势</th>
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<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left text-blue-200 font-semibold">风险点</th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody>
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<tr class="border-b border-slate-700">
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<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium text-cyan-200">中文在线</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4 text-slate-300">独家IP合作+550万种训练数据</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4 text-slate-300">数据壁垒+AI生成内容变现</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4 text-slate-300">版权合规风险（曾涉盗版争议）</td>
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</tr>
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<tr class="border-b border-slate-700">
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<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium text-cyan-200">云赛智联</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4 text-slate-300">参股上海智算（持股11%）</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4 text-slate-300">上海国资算力调度权</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4 text-slate-300">算力需求不及预期导致资产闲置</td>
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</tr>
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||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium text-cyan-200">吉利</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 text-slate-300">联合开源Step-Video-T2V</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 text-slate-300">车载Agent场景落地</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 text-slate-300">车企自研模型（如蔚来NOMI）竞争</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Risks Section -->
|
||
<div class="card rounded-xl p-6 mb-8">
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-6 text-blue-300 flex items-center">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-exclamation-triangle mr-3"></i>潜在风险与挑战
|
||
</h2>
|
||
|
||
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
|
||
<div class="bg-slate-800 bg-opacity-50 p-5 rounded-lg">
|
||
<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold mb-3 text-cyan-200">技术风险</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-slate-300">
|
||
MoE架构的<span class="highlight">专家路由效率</span>可能随参数扩大而下降（万亿级模型通病）。
|
||
</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="bg-slate-800 bg-opacity-50 p-5 rounded-lg">
|
||
<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold mb-3 text-cyan-200">商业化风险</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-slate-300">
|
||
C端产品"冒泡鸭"用户留存率未知，B端金融模型需通过<span class="highlight">券商合规测试</span>（如国泰君安"君弘灵犀"落地进度）。
|
||
</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="bg-slate-800 bg-opacity-50 p-5 rounded-lg">
|
||
<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold mb-3 text-cyan-200">政策风险</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-slate-300">
|
||
数据跨境传输限制可能影响<span class="highlight">财跃F1</span>服务外资机构。
|
||
</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="bg-slate-800 bg-opacity-50 p-5 rounded-lg">
|
||
<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold mb-3 text-cyan-200">信息矛盾</h3>
|
||
<ul class="list-disc pl-5 text-slate-300 space-y-1">
|
||
<li>融资额：新闻称"超5亿美元"，但路演未披露估值，<span class="highlight">可能存在对赌条款</span>。</li>
|
||
<li>开源承诺：2025年3月计划开源图生视频模型，但<span class="highlight">Step-Video-TI2V已延迟至3月20日</span>（实际开源时间需验证）。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Conclusion Section -->
|
||
<div class="card rounded-xl p-6 mb-8">
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-6 text-blue-300 flex items-center">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-chart-line mr-3"></i>综合结论与投资启示
|
||
</h2>
|
||
|
||
<div class="mb-6">
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-4 text-cyan-200">阶段判断</h3>
|
||
<div class="bg-slate-800 bg-opacity-50 p-5 rounded-lg">
|
||
<p class="text-slate-300 text-lg">
|
||
<span class="highlight">主题炒作向基本面过渡</span>——技术验证完成，商业化落地（金融/车载）是下一关键。
|
||
</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="mb-6">
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-4 text-cyan-200">投资方向</h3>
|
||
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-4">
|
||
<div class="bg-slate-800 bg-opacity-50 p-4 rounded-lg">
|
||
<h4 class="font-semibold text-blue-200 mb-2">数据层</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-slate-300">中文在线（IP稀缺性+AI训练付费模式）</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="bg-slate-800 bg-opacity-50 p-4 rounded-lg">
|
||
<h4 class="font-semibold text-blue-200 mb-2">算力层</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-slate-300">云赛智联（上海国资算力垄断+阶跃股权绑定）</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="bg-slate-800 bg-opacity-50 p-4 rounded-lg">
|
||
<h4 class="font-semibold text-blue-200 mb-2">应用层</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-slate-300">吉利汽车（车载Agent场景最快落地）</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-4 text-cyan-200">跟踪指标</h3>
|
||
<ul class="list-disc pl-6 text-slate-300 space-y-2">
|
||
<li><span class="highlight">Step-3开源后GitHub星标数</span>（开发者生态指标）</li>
|
||
<li><span class="highlight">中文在线2025年AI授权收入</span>（需>5000万元验证商业化）</li>
|
||
<li><span class="highlight">上海智算合资公司机柜上架率</span>（算力需求真实性）</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Related Stocks Section -->
|
||
<div class="card rounded-xl p-6">
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-6 text-blue-300 flex items-center">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-table mr-3"></i>关联股票
|
||
</h2>
|
||
|
||
<div class="table-container">
|
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<table class="min-w-full bg-slate-800 bg-opacity-50 rounded-lg">
|
||
<thead>
|
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<tr class="border-b border-slate-700">
|
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<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left text-blue-200 font-semibold">股票名称</th>
|
||
<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left text-blue-200 font-semibold">关联方式</th>
|
||
<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left text-blue-200 font-semibold">合作领域/项目</th>
|
||
<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left text-blue-200 font-semibold">关联理由</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-slate-700">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium text-cyan-200">云赛智联</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 text-slate-300">参股</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 text-slate-300">上海智算公司股权</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 text-slate-300">公司与阶跃星辰分别持有上海智算公司股权</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-slate-700">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium text-cyan-200">新华传媒</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 text-slate-300">参股</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 text-slate-300">上海智算公司股权</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 text-slate-300">公司与阶跃星辰分别持有上海智算公司股权</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-slate-700">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium text-cyan-200">中文在线</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 text-slate-300">合作项目</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 text-slate-300">财跃星辰 / 灵感激发、剧情设计、内容创作</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 text-slate-300">与阶跃星辰合作成立财跃星辰，发布金融大模型，探索在灵感激发、剧情设计、内容创作等领域合作</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium text-cyan-200">同方股份</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 text-slate-300">合作领域</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 text-slate-300">知识数据、大众知识服务</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 text-slate-300">与旗下知网围绕严肃知识数据、大众知识服务等领域合作</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
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</div>
|
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``` |