595 lines
38 KiB
HTML
595 lines
38 KiB
HTML
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<head>
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<meta charset="UTF-8">
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<title>深度行研报告：液态金属散热</title>
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<div class="max-w-7xl mx-auto">
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<header class="text-center py-12">
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<h1 class="section-title mb-2">深度行研报告：液态金属散热</h1>
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<p class="text-lg text-indigo-300">算力热墙下的必然选择，从概念走向产业化的前夜</p>
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</header>
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<main>
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<!-- Insight Section -->
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<section id="insight" class="mb-16">
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<div class="bento-grid">
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<!-- 核心观点摘要 -->
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<div class="bento-item bento-item-1 glass-card p-8 flex flex-col justify-center" @mousemove="handleMouseMove(event, $el)">
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<div class="card-content">
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<h2 class="card-title-sm mb-4">
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<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-6 w-6 text-indigo-400" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M13 10V3L4 14h7v7l9-11h-7z" /></svg>
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核心观点摘要
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</h2>
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<p class="text-xl leading-relaxed text-gray-200">
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液态金属散热是<strong class="text-indigo-300">算力竞赛背景下散热瓶颈倒逼的技术升级叙事</strong>。其核心驱动力源于AI芯片功耗突破传统风冷极限的物理必然性，目前正处于<strong class="text-purple-300">从主题炒作向产业化初期过渡</strong>的关键阶段。未来潜力巨大，但短期内面临<strong class="text-rose-400">封装技术瓶颈和高昂成本</strong>两大商业化挑战，市场预期与产业实际落地进度之间存在显著的预期差。
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</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 概念事件 -->
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<div class="bento-item bento-item-2 glass-card p-6" @mousemove="handleMouseMove(event, $el)">
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<div class="card-content">
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<h3 class="card-title-sm mb-3">
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<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-5 w-5 text-indigo-400" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M8 7V3m8 4V3m-9 8h10M5 21h14a2 2 0 002-2V7a2 2 0 00-2-2H5a2 2 0 00-2 2v12a2 2 0 002 2z" /></svg>
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概念引爆事件
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</h3>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">由<strong class="text-white">宏观算力需求</strong>、<strong class="text-white">技术迭代预期 (英伟达)</strong> 和<strong class="text-white">关键公司动态</strong>共同催化，从游戏本等小众市场推向AI服务器主流叙事核心。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 市场热度与情绪 -->
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<div class="bento-item bento-item-3 glass-card p-6" @mousemove="handleMouseMove(event, $el)">
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<div class="card-content">
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<h3 class="card-title-sm mb-3">
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<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-5 w-5 text-indigo-400" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M13 7h8m0 0v8m0-8l-8 8-4-4-6 6" /></svg>
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市场热度与情绪
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</h3>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">整体情绪<strong class="text-white">高度乐观</strong>，普遍认同AI服务器散热是高景气赛道。但情绪内部存在分化，部分资金追逐概念，部分开始挖掘基本面。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 核心逻辑：物理极限下的必然选择 -->
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<div class="bento-item bento-item-4 glass-card p-8" @mousemove="handleMouseMove(event, $el)">
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<div class="card-content">
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<h3 class="card-title-sm mb-4">
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<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-6 w-6 text-indigo-400" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" d="M9 3v2m6-2v2M9 19v2m6-2v2M5 9H3m2 6H3m18-6h-2m2 6h-2M12 6V3m0 18v-3M5.636 5.636l-1.414-1.414M19.778 19.778l-1.414-1.414M18.364 5.636l1.414-1.414M4.222 19.778l1.414-1.414M12 12a5 5 0 100-10 5 5 0 000 10z" /></svg>
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核心驱动力：物理极限下的必然选择
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</h3>
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<div class="prose prose-custom text-sm space-y-3">
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<p>驱动该概念的根本逻辑是<strong>物理学</strong>。传统风冷散热极限约<strong>800W</strong>，而NVIDIA B100/B200芯片TDP预计达<strong>1000W-1200W</strong>，形成“算力热墙”。</p>
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<p>液态金属作为TIM材料，导热系数高达<strong>20-30W/(m·K)</strong>，是传统硅脂的数倍至数十倍，是提升整个液冷系统效能的关键一环。</p>
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<p><strong>政策逻辑</strong>：“双碳”目标下，政策对数据中心PUE要求趋严（新建需<1.25），液冷系统（PUE可<1.2）是满足要求的关键技术。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 关键催化剂与发展路径 -->
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<div class="bento-item bento-item-5 glass-card p-8" @mousemove="handleMouseMove(event, $el)">
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<div class="card-content">
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<h3 class="card-title-sm mb-4">
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<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-6 w-6 text-indigo-400" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M4 6a2 2 0 012-2h2a2 2 0 012 2v2a2 2 0 01-2 2H6a2 2 0 01-2-2V6zM14 6a2 2 0 012-2h2a2 2 0 012 2v2a2 2 0 01-2 2h-2a2 2 0 01-2-2V6zM4 16a2 2 0 012-2h2a2 2 0 012 2v2a2 2 0 01-2 2H6a2 2 0 01-2-2v-2zM14 16a2 2 0 012-2h2a2 2 0 012 2v2a2 2 0 01-2 2h-2a2 2 0 01-2-2v-2z" /></svg>
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关键催化剂与发展路径
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</h3>
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<div class="prose prose-custom text-sm space-y-3">
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<strong>近期催化剂 (3-6个月):</strong>
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<ul>
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<li>NVIDIA官方发布会明确采用“Liquid Metal TIM”。</li>
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<li>核心公司（中石科技/德邦科技）公告获北美大客户批量订单。</li>
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<li>头部云厂商公布其采用液态金属散热方案的基础设施。</li>
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</ul>
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<strong>长期发展路径:</strong>
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<ol>
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<li><strong>当前-2026:</strong> 高端服务器市场渗透。</li>
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<li><strong>2026-2028:</strong> 向AI PC及高端消费电子拓展。</li>
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<li><strong>2028以后:</strong> 拓展至新能源、储能等多领域应用。</li>
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</ol>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 潜在风险与挑战 -->
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<div class="bento-item bento-item-6 glass-card p-8" @mousemove="handleMouseMove(event, $el)">
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<div class="card-content">
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<h3 class="card-title-sm mb-4">
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<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-6 w-6 text-rose-400" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M12 9v2m0 4h.01m-6.938 4h13.856c1.54 0 2.502-1.667 1.732-3L13.732 4c-.77-1.333-2.694-1.333-3.464 0L3.34 16c-.77 1.333.192 3 1.732 3z" /></svg>
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潜在风险与挑战
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</h3>
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<div class="prose prose-custom text-sm space-y-3">
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<ul>
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<li><strong>技术风险：</strong>封装瓶颈是核心，易导致泄漏和短路；材料（如镓基）对铝等金属有腐蚀性，存在兼容性问题。</li>
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<li><strong>商业化风险：</strong>成本高昂，限制向中低端市场渗透；面临石墨烯、高性能相变材料等替代技术的竞争。</li>
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<li><strong>信息交叉验证风险：</strong>市场对部分公司（如宜安科技）的定位与其实际主营业务存在偏差，新闻热度与公司路演的真实进展存在“温差”。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 产业链与核心公司 -->
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<div class="bento-item bento-item-7 glass-card p-8" @mousemove="handleMouseMove(event, $el)">
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<div class="card-content">
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<h3 class="card-title-sm mb-4">
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<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-6 w-6 text-indigo-400" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M19 11H5m14 0a2 2 0 012 2v6a2 2 0 01-2 2H5a2 2 0 01-2-2v-6a2 2 0 012-2m14 0V9a2 2 0 00-2-2M5 11V9a2 2 0 012-2m0 0V5a2 2 0 012-2h6a2 2 0 012 2v2M7 7h10" /></svg>
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产业链与核心公司剖析
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</h3>
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<div class="overflow-x-auto">
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<table class="daisy-table w-full text-sm">
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<thead>
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<tr>
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<th>公司名称</th>
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<th>竞争优势</th>
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<th>业务进展 (基于数据)</th>
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<th class="text-rose-400">潜在风险</th>
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<th>逻辑纯粹度</th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody>
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<tr>
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<td class="font-semibold text-white">德邦科技</td>
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<td>收购泰吉诺，产品线最明确</td>
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<td>已通过浸没式液冷服务器验证，获订单</td>
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<td class="text-rose-300">需解决氟化液腐蚀问题，产品需头部厂商认证</td>
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<td><div class="badge badge-success badge-outline">高</div></td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td class="font-semibold text-white">中石科技</td>
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<td>综合散热方案能力强，已入NV供应链(风冷)</td>
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<td>液态金属材料“研发进展顺利”</td>
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<td class="text-rose-300">研发未完成，量产时间不确定，面临其他TIM材料竞争</td>
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<td><div class="badge badge-info badge-outline">中高</div></td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td class="font-semibold text-white">科创新源</td>
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<td>TIM产品矩阵布局完整</td>
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<td>已布局全系列产品，进入NV/富联供应链</td>
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<td class="text-rose-300">具体客户验证和订单细节较少</td>
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<td><div class="badge badge-warning badge-outline">中</div></td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td class="font-semibold text-white">宜安科技</td>
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<td class="line-through">公司名称与概念强绑定</td>
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<td>业务重心在<strong class="text-yellow-400">结构件(铰链)</strong>，散热应用未见商业化</td>
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<td class="text-rose-300">业务重心与散热概念严重不符，市场认知偏差巨大</td>
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<td><div class="badge badge-error badge-outline">低</div></td>
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</tr>
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</tbody>
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</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Supporting Data Section -->
|
||
<section id="data-details" class="mb-16">
|
||
<h2 class="section-title text-center mb-8">多维数据交叉验证</h2>
|
||
<div x-data="{ tab: 'report' }" class="glass-card p-2 sm:p-4">
|
||
<div role="tablist" class="tabs tabs-lifted">
|
||
<a role="tab" class="tab" :class="{'tab-active': tab === 'report'}" @click="tab = 'report'">研报数据</a>
|
||
<a role="tab" class="tab" :class="{'tab-active': tab === 'roadshow'}" @click="tab = 'roadshow'">路演纪要</a>
|
||
<a role="tab" class="tab" :class="{'tab-active': tab === 'news'}" @click="tab = 'news'">新闻资讯</a>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="p-4 sm:p-8 min-h-[400px]">
|
||
<!-- 研报数据 -->
|
||
<div x-show="tab === 'report'" x-transition>
|
||
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 lg:grid-cols-2 gap-8">
|
||
<div class="prose prose-custom max-w-none">
|
||
<h3>液态金属：定义、特性与核心优势</h3>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>定义：</strong> 熔点低于或接近室温的金属合金，镓基合金为主流（占比>50%）。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>核心特性：</strong> 低熔点、强导电、高导热、流动性好。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>性能优势：</strong>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>高导热性：</strong> 热导率达 20-30W/(m·K)，远超传统硅脂。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>高流动性：</strong> 完美填充微小间隙，提高热传递效率。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>高稳定性：</strong> 沸点高（镓基>2200℃），不气化、不分解，寿命长。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<h3>核心驱动力：芯片功耗与算力密度急剧提升</h3>
|
||
<p>NVIDIA的H100 SXM TDP达到700W，已逼近风冷散热上限(约800W)。即将推出的B100 TDP或高达1000W，B200更高达1200W。黄仁勋称从B100开始，未来产品将全面由风冷转为液冷。</p>
|
||
<h3>产业化瓶颈与挑战</h3>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>材料瓶颈：</strong> 高纯镓中的微量杂质影响工艺稳定性。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>封装瓶颈：</strong> 因流动性强、表面张力大，易导致封装渗漏或短路风险，技术不成熟导致良率低、成本高。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<div id="tdp-chart" class="w-full h-[400px]"></div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<!-- 路演纪要 -->
|
||
<div x-show="tab === 'roadshow'" x-transition>
|
||
<div class="space-y-4">
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-plus glass-card">
|
||
<input type="radio" name="roadshow-accordion" checked="checked" />
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium text-white">德邦科技</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content prose prose-custom max-w-none text-sm">
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>产品体系:</strong> 液态金属片导热系数 >80W/m·K，适用于浸没式液冷服务器（已获订单）。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>协同效应:</strong> 新控股的泰吉诺优势在于高导热垫片、相变材料、液态金属。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>商业化进展:</strong> 已通过浸没式液冷服务器验证，但需解决氟化液腐蚀问题。市场空间看好，预计2025年液冷服务器占比超20%，液态金属TIM需求增速超行业均值。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>风险提示:</strong> 技术验证延迟，材料需通过英伟达/AMD等头部厂商认证。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-plus glass-card">
|
||
<input type="radio" name="roadshow-accordion" />
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium text-white">中石科技</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content prose prose-custom max-w-none text-sm">
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>增长方向:</strong> 英伟达产业链已导入风冷模组，液态金属材料研发进展顺利。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>业务进展:</strong> 液冷模组技术导入英伟达供应链，液态金属材料研发中，需关注2025下半年量产进展。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>谬误核实:</strong> 液态金属散热的技术成熟度及成本需进一步验证，市场尚未大规模应用。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>关注风险:</strong> 技术落地风险，关注液冷模组量产、液态金属导入进度。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-plus glass-card">
|
||
<input type="radio" name="roadshow-accordion" />
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium text-white">东睦股份 & 科创新源</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content prose prose-custom max-w-none text-sm">
|
||
<p><strong>东睦股份:</strong> 技术储备领先，应用场景包括机器人、芯片散热、面部识别。2025年重点关注液态金属量产落地。</p>
|
||
<p><strong>科创新源:</strong> 子公司兆科TIM产品矩阵覆盖硅脂、垫片、相变材料、液态金属；液态金属导热系数显著领先，已布局TIM1、TIM1.5、TIM2全系列。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<!-- 新闻资讯 -->
|
||
<div x-show="tab === 'news'" x-transition>
|
||
<div class="prose prose-custom max-w-none space-y-4">
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3>英伟达与液态金属散热技术</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-sm">新闻报道（2025-01-09）称“英伟达或用液态金属取代硅脂”，认为液态金属为先进散热技术带来了颠覆性变革，是引爆市场的直接催化剂。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3>AI服务器与液态金属散热方案</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-sm">国金证券研报指出，在英伟达GB300 NVL72服务器中，“配合高效TIM材料液态金属，两相冷板散热方案优势明显”。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3>相关公司动态</h3>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>中石科技:</strong> 布局TIM材料，产品涵盖金属基类（液态金属等），有望应用于海外主流AI服务器。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>德邦科技:</strong> 新控股的泰吉诺旗下有用于CPU、GPU的液态金属产品。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>红魔游戏手机:</strong> 已发布搭载“液态金属2.0＋风冷散热双散系统”的产品，为消费电子端应用实例。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>晶华新材 (澄清):</strong> 发布公告明确表示，公司目前不涉及“液态金属散热材料”。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>宜安科技 & 安泰科技 (潜在相关):</strong> 在液态金属领域有深入布局，但目前披露的应用主要集中在结构件（如手机铰链）而非散热材料。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Stock Data Section -->
|
||
<section id="stock-data" class="mb-12">
|
||
<h2 class="section-title text-center mb-8">相关概念股梳理</h2>
|
||
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-4 text-indigo-200">涨幅异动分析补充</h3>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto glass-card p-4 mb-8">
|
||
<table class="daisy-table w-full text-xs sm:text-sm">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>代码</th>
|
||
<th>涨跌幅</th>
|
||
<th>日期</th>
|
||
<th class="w-1/2">异动原因摘要</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr><td>阿莱德</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=301419" target="_blank">301419</a></td><td>+5.96%</td><td>2025-08-18</td><td>核心驱动为液冷服务器与英伟达产业链概念，市场传闻其为GB200液冷模组潜在二级供应商；公司曾公开展示液态金属散热系统，并布局人形机器人散热。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>科创新源</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300731" target="_blank">300731</a></td><td>+6.42%</td><td>2025-08-05</td><td>液冷服务器概念受关注，公司在液冷板代工领域获部分厂商合作资格；子公司东莞兆科电子的导热界面材料已进入英伟达/富联供应链。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>中石科技</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300684" target="_blank">300684</a></td><td>+14.09%</td><td>2025-09-17</td><td>液冷服务器概念走强，英伟达推动MLCP水冷板新技术利好公司；自身业绩亮眼，H1净利增93.7%；多赛道布局（消费电子、数字基建）成效显著。</td></tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-4 text-indigo-200">核心概念股列表</h3>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto glass-card p-4">
|
||
<table class="daisy-table w-full text-xs sm:text-sm">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>代码</th>
|
||
<th>关联原因</th>
|
||
<th>其他标签</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr><td>德邦科技</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688035" target="_blank">688035</a></td><td>收购的苏州泰吉诺开发出低凝固点液态金属等产品应用于数据中心，三大客户英伟达、富士康、华为。</td><td>自由流通值: 21.26亿</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>宜安科技</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300328" target="_blank">300328</a></td><td>主营产品为液态金属（主要为结构件）。公司拥有一种液态金属散热装置发明专利。</td><td>自由流通值: 40.15亿</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>三祥新材</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603663" target="_blank">603663</a></td><td>子公司为工业海绵锆专业厂家，间接用于锆基液态金属的生产。与宜安科技有合作。</td><td>自由流通值: 29.52亿</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>飞荣达</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300602" target="_blank">300602</a></td><td>公司官网产品包含TIM导热界面材料，国内企业在液态金属新材料领域逐步突破。</td><td>自由流通值: 49.44亿</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>苏州天脉</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=301626" target="_blank">301626</a></td><td>主要产品为热管、均温板、导热界面材料等。</td><td>自由流通值: 18.78亿</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>回天新材</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300041" target="_blank">300041</a></td><td>热界面材料前端企业，通过MPS向英伟达供应芯片封装用胶板块系列产品，其中包括芯片级导热界面材料。</td><td>自由流通值: 41.57亿</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>依米康</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300249" target="_blank">300249</a></td><td>旗下散热科技公司研发并生产的液态金属散热金属技术为首创。</td><td>自由流通值: 39.35亿</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>晶华新材</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603683" target="_blank">603683</a></td><td class="text-rose-400"><strong>澄清公告：</strong> 公司主营业务不涉及“液态金属散热材料”。</td><td>自由流通值: 15.10亿</td></tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
</main>
|
||
|
||
<footer class="text-center py-8">
|
||
<p class="text-xs text-gray-500">北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现</p>
|
||
<p class="text-xs text-gray-600 mt-1">本报告为AI合成数据，投资需谨慎。</p>
|
||
</footer>
|
||
|
||
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|
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